Showing posts with label h. Outdoor Recreation Trends. Show all posts
Showing posts with label h. Outdoor Recreation Trends. Show all posts
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The Great Outdoor Recreation Debate

Over the past couple of decades, we have concluded that demand for outdoor recreation will remain high and more stable that facility oriented and team-based pursuits.  This assumption was shaken a couple of years ago by two publications:
  • Richard Louv in his book, 'Last Child in the Woods: Saving Our Children from Nature-Deficit Disorder', raises concerns that our children have little or no experience of what it's like to explore the great outdoors.  Today's child is being deprived of the knowledge and the spiritual and emotional grounding that nature offers.
  • Oliver Pergmas and Patricis Zaradic, in their article 'Evidence for a fundamental and pervasive shift away from nature-based recreation', looked at 16 time series variables before concluding that we are witness to a general downtrend in per capita participation in nature recreation. www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.0709893105
Possible reasons for the identified decline in participation rates include:
  • growth in ethnic populations that often have a different view of nature and the wilderness
  • increasing cost of travel as fuel costs increase - as well as increases in time required related to urban development and traffic congestion
  • the shift over the years to more expensive forms of outdoor accommodation (e.g. RV camping) and the negative impact of the economic downturn in this regard
  • increasing competition from various forms of electronic entertainment that keep us indoors
  • crowding and congestion at destination points, and
  • increasing awareness of the environmental impacts that accompany overuse.
A rebuttal of sorts has come in the form of a 2009 presentation by Ken Cordell, Carter Betz, Gary Green and Shela Mou - a team that has kept the outdoor industry informed about trends for years ( http://warnell.forestry.uga.edu/nrrt/NSRE/2009R6.ppt#536 ).  The team concludes that:
  • between 2000 and early 2008, the total number of Americans who participated in one or more outdoor activities increased by 4.4%
  • at the same time, the total number of days of participation increased from 67 billion to 84 billion
  • between 2000 and 2007, the total number of people participating in nature-based activities grew by 3.1%, while the number of participation days grew by about 32% - over all 50 nature-based activities studied, per capita days increased by more than 22%.

This latest analysis indicates that, when you look at total annual recreation activity days:
  • hunting and fishing is holding steady
  • backcounry activity trends are mixed but steady (with recent increases in backpacking and mountain climbing)
  • non-motor boating activity trends are mixed but experiencing a slight decline (kayaking grew in the first part of the decade and has held its place as the most popular activity in this category)
  • both snow skiing and snowboarding are experiencing significant decline
  • motorized activity trends are mixed: off-highway vehicle driving is up; snowmobiling is down; motorboating, personal watercraft, and waterskiing all steady
  • viewing/photographing nature grew rapidly mid decade and is relatively stable at that new level or plateau.
The bottom line appears to be that while per capita participation rates are generally down in the outdoor recreation field, visitor numbers are actually up due to a combination of more frequent visits and population growth over the same time period.

As if to confirm the above summary, Leisure Trends Group reported that outdoor product sales were down 2.2% in 2009.  Based on point-of-sale data, chain retail sales dropped 3%, specialty shop sales dropped 4.1%, while internet sales increased 4.5%. http://www.leisuretrends.com/

However, the 2009 Topline Report of the Outdoor Industry Foundation used an online survey process and concluded that per capita participation rates were actually higher in 2008 than in 2007 for all outdoor activities included in the survey except kayaking and skiing.  The debate is not yet conclusive. http://outdoorindustry.org/research.new.php?action=detail&research_id=72

Meanwhile, those interested in ensuring continued public interest in the outdoors are being encouraged to take action:
  • Louv speaks to may ways of becoming active in a "No child Left Inside" movement
  • USA Today reports on a burgeoning, nationwide "back-to-nature movement to reconnect children with the outdoors", and
  • there's a new American Girl Doll, Lanie designed by American Girl in partnership with the Natinal Wildlife Federation (NWF) in support of the organization's "Be Out There" campaign.  She is intended to help girls play with growing a garden, bird-watch, camp, create a butterfly habitat, etc.  www.parentdish.com/2009/12/30/new-american-girl-doll-encourages-healthy-outoor-play/
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Alberta Outdoor Recreation Participation Rates - 1988 to 2008

The Alberta Recreation Suvey has been conducted every four years since 1981. Participation figures for the most popular outdoor recreation activities have been taken from each survey report (1988 - 2008) to look at the 20 year trend. In general, rates are declining; however growth is experienced in golf, day hiking, birdwatching, and ATV/Off Road Vehicles.

Alberta Outdoor Recreation Trends - 1988 to 2008
% of households participating
Activity
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
Gardening

70.4



57.6

74.9

72.1

64.8
Golf

39.5

41.0

44.0

46.6

44.9

43.6
Overnight Camping

51.1

45.8

46.3

47.6

45.3

39.7
Day Hiking

30.5

33.2

36.1

38.3

35.8

37.0
Fishing

49.7

38.9

34.8

31.5

29.3

27.5
Birdwatching



16.7

18.6

17.9

19.1
ATV/Off Road Vehicles

14.2

14.0

12.9

10.0

11.6

16.9
Mountain Biking (off road)




5.0

18.1

16.4

11.5
Horseback/Trail Riding

21.5

16.8

16.2

12.6

10.9

10.8

Hunting

22.1

14.7

11.0

9.3

8.2

8.1
Shooting (trap/skeet/target)

11.1





4.9

6.2

6.7
Mountain Climbing

9.1

8.7

11.6

9.4

9.9

6.1
Overnight Backpacking

8.4

7.8

10.2

9.5

7.2

5.9
Archery

5.9

5.4

5.4

4.2

4.9

5.1
Motorized Trail Biking

9.0

5.9



4.6

5.1

4.6
Orienteering

3.3

2.8

4.5

2.8

1.9

2.9
Moto-Cross

1.6

1.1

2.5

0.4

1.0

1.3
BMX Racing

1.6

0.96

2.1

0.8



1.2
Source: http://tpr.alberta.ca/recreation/ars/surveypdf
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Trends in US National Park Visitation (1985 - 2008)

Visits to US National Parks has been plateaued since the recorded high in 1987 of 287 million recreation visits.





Year


Recreation Visits (million)


1985


1986


1987


1988


1089


1990


1991


1992


1993


1994


1995


1996


1997


1998


1999


2000


2001


2002


2003


2004


2005


2006


2007


2008



263.4


281.1


287.2


282.5


269.4


255.6


267.8


274.7


273.1


268.6


269.6


265.8


275.2


286.8


287.1


285.9


279.9


277.3


266.1


276.9


273.5


272.6


275.6


274.8



Source: www.nature.nps.gov/stats/park.cfm
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Trends in US State Park Visitation (1975 - 2007)

The National Association of State Park Directors holds and Annual Information Exchange, including sharing and summarizing visitation statistics. The stats show that the rapid growth peaked around 2000 and even decreased somewhat (in spite of continued population growth).

Note that National Park visitation has been plateaued since 1987 (highest level ever).




Year


Millions of Visits


1975


1985


1995


2000


2001


2003


2005


2006


2007



471


660


746


767


735


735


715


711


740



Source: Ken Cordel, Carter Beta and Gary Green, 'Nature-based Outdoor Recreation Trends and Wilderness', International Journal of Wilderness (August 2008, Volume 14, Number 2)

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Trends in US Outdoor Recreation Participation (1999 - 2008)

After several decades of consistent growth in outdoor recreation, we are seeing significant decline in a relatively large number of activities. The National Survey on Recreation and the Environment (US) looked at 60 outdoor recreation activities from 1999 to 2008. An analysis by Ken Crodell, Carter Betz and Grary Green (reference at end of blog) found:

  • that the total number of people who participated in one or more of 60 outdoor recreation activities grew by 4.4% from 1999 to 2008 - from an estimated 208 million to 217 million
  • at the same time, the number of days of participation across all participants and activities increase from 67 billion to 84 billion, up approximately 25%
  • strong evidence that some of the more traditional activies are losing popularity: picnicking, visiting historic sites, hunting, downhill skiing, horsebackriding on trails, sailing, snowmobiling, cross-country skiing and diving
  • strong evidence that other outdoor activities are becoming more popular: walking, family gatherings, viewing/photographing nature, visiting beaches, visiting farms, driving motor vehicles off road, kayaking and snowboarding.

The table below shows the percentage change from 1999/2001 to 2005/2008 in both the number of US participants in each activity and in the total days spent by these individuals. The listing is in descending order of overall percentage change in total days devoted to each activity.





Activity


% change

# participants


('99/01 - '05/08)


% change

total participant days


('99/01-'05/08)


visited farm or agric. setting


view/photograph flowers, etc.


view/photograph natural scenery


drive off-road


view/photograph other wildlife


view/photograph birds


kayaking


visit waterside besides beach


backpacking


snowboarding


rock climbing


visit nature centres, etc.


big game hunting


mountain climbing


visit a beach


sightseeing


walk for pleasure


family gatherings outdoors


visit a wilderness


primitive camping


developed camping


anadromous fishing


motorboating


warmwater fishing


caving


swimming in lakes, ponds, etc.


gather mushrooms, berries, etc.


small game hunting


rafting


drving for pleasure


surfing


waterskiing


use personal watercraft


rowing


coldwater fishing


visit prehistoric sites


cross-country skiing


saltwater fishing


snorkeling


visit historic sites


downhill skiing


picnicking


canoeing


sailing


migratory bird hunting


day hiking


snowmobiling


scuba diving


mountain biking


horseback riding on trails


snowshoeing


windsurfing


bicycling


boat tours or excurions


horseback riding


ice fishing


ice skating outdoors


orienteering


sledding


view/photograph fish


20.2


25.8


14.1


18.6


21.3


19.3


63.1


1.6


-0.6


7.3


-5.5


5.0


12.8


-12.5


10.4


4.1


9.6


4.2


3.0


-2.0


2.7


-0.4


3.9


7.3


8.9


4.0


16.1


-0.3


-16.8


3.1


29.9


5.5


-4.1


-6.3


-2.1


2.4


-39.2


9.9


5.1


-4.5


-14.8


-1.4


2.3


-6.5


-16.2


6.8


-29.7


-9.0


-8.0


-8.2


-11.8


-19.1


7.7


10.7


4.9


-14.5


-21.3


58.6


-6.5


16.8


100.2


77.8


60.5


56.1


46.9


37.6


29.4


28.1


24.0


23.9


23.8


23.2


21.2


20.5


16.3


14.0


13.9


13.7


12.8


12.1


9.3


7.6


7.3


5.6


3.3


2.2


1.9


-0.7


-1.0


-1.1


-1.1


-3.9


-4.3


-6.5


-7.0


-7.3


-7.8


-11.0


-12.4


-15.2


-15.7


-17.2


-17.9


-18.1


-18.8


-20.9


-27.4


-31.0


-32.7


-35.2


-36.6


-39.5


na


na


na


na


na


na


na


na




Source: Ken Cordell, Carter Betz and Gary Green, 'Outdoor Recreation Activity Trends: What's Growing, What's Slowing?', A Recreation Research Report in the IRIS Series (Internet Research Information Series, September 2008)
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Long Term US Outdoor Recreation Participation Trends (1982 - 2009

The US National Survey on Recreation and the Environment has been systematically collecting comparable, longitudinal data for decades. The table below indicates the percentage of the US population participating at least once in each of the most popular outdoor recreation activities.

The vast majority of activities are experiencing growth - the fastest being birdwatching, day hiking, backpacking and driving off road. The only activies that have actually lost popularity are sailing, cross-country skiing, ice skating outdoors and tennis outdoors.

Please note another blog in the outdoor recreation category that shows much more volatility in the first decade of the 21st century (using NSRE data as well).




Activity


'82-'83


'94-'95


'99-'01


'05-'09


% change


walk for pleasure


view/photography birds


attend outdoor sport events


day hiking


outdoor concerts/plays


visit nature centres


swimming (lakes, streams)


sightseeing


bicycling


running or jogging


picnicking


boating


driving for pleasure


drive off-road


developed camping


swimming in outdoor pool


motorboating


outdoor team sports


fishing


primitive camping


canoeing or kayaking


backpacking


golf


sledding


horseback riding


hunting


downhill skiing


waterskiing


snowmobiling


sailing


cross country skiing


ice skating outdoors


tennis outdoors


53.0


12.0


40.0


14.0


25.0


50.0


32.0


46.0


32.0


26.0


48.0


28.0


48.0


11.0


17.0


43.0


19.0


24.0


34.0


10.0


8.0


5.0


13.0


10.0


9.0


12.0


6.0


9.0


3.0


6.0


3.0


6.0


17.0


68,8


27.0


49.0


26.6


35.2


55.1


43.4


58.4


38.7


28.2


55.7


37.8


na


17.8


23.1


49.2


29.6


29.1


35.0


15.6


9.5


8.4


17.3


13.7


10.3


12.5


11.3


11.3


4.8


6.0


4.4


7.1


14.0


82.4


31.8


50.8


32.4


40.9


56.7


41.4


50.8


39.6


32.9


54.9


36.3


50.3


17.4


26.4


41.7


24.3


22.9


34.2


15.9


11.5


10.4


16.7


15.1


9.7


11.1


8.6


8.0


5.5


5.1


3.8


6.7


10.5


84.1


34.9


52.4


32.6


36.5


55.1


40.7


50.5


39.2


34.5


50.9


35.6


48.8


20.0


24.1


43.1


23.3


26.9


33.8


14.2


12.4


9.8


14.3


11.6


9.7


11.5


6.4


8.3


3.8


4.5


2.1


4.2


9.7


111.3


287.0


74.4


209.9


94.2


46.7


69.4


46.1


62.9


76.5


41.1


68.9


35.3


141.9


88.8


33.4


63.0


49.3


32.2


89.6


105.8


160.9


46.5


54.9


43.6


27.9


42.3


23.1


67.3


-1.0


-5.8


-7.7


-24.4



Source: Ken Cordell, Carter Betz and Gary Green, 'Nature-based Outdoor Recreation Trends and Wilderness', International Journal of Wilderness (August 2008, Volume 14, Number 2) - using data from the National Survey on Recreation and the Environment, USDA Forest Service and University of Georgia)
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Outdoor Recreation Growth Drivers

Before we get lost in data related to outdoor recreation activity trends, it is important to reflect on the real growth drivers:



§ even if participation rates remained the same, Canada’s population growth will likely ensure increased demand for outdoor recreation and use of natural/protected areas – the Statistics Canada medium population projection predicts a 14% increase from 2001 to 2021


§ by 2015, most baby boomers will be retired and have increased leisure time – there is ample evidence that growing numbers will seek ‘soft adventures’ in the outdoors


§ world tourism growth projections will regain their strength and optimism after the combined scares of 9-11, SARS, and the economic collapse; Canada’s rebranded, outdoor product sits well with emerging preferences.



However, the rate of growth in demand for outdoor recreation is dependent on a number of variables. The table below summarizes both the potential growth drivers and dampeners.






Growth DRIVERS


Growth DAMPENERS


overall population growth - 14% increase from 2001 to 2021


retiring baby boomers - the largest population cohort, increasingly interested in soft adventures


urbanization which tends to increase demand for natural experiences - more than 50% of Canadians now live in the four major urban centres


increasing education and related lifetime earnings leads to increased interest and ability to participate


increasing interest in experiencing natural environments and wildlife given their scarcity value


government/tourism industry promotion of natural area destinations


increasing international tourism interest in experiencing Canda's natural areas


the relatively low cost of participation in most outdoor recreation activities


advances in information technology informs potential visitors and facilitates travel arrangements


advances in travel technology make remote areas more accessible


increasing percentage of immigrants, a group significantly under-represented in visits to protected areas - residents born outside Canada will increase from currnt 21% to 28% by 2026


outdoor recreation participation rates generally reduce with age - although emerging seniors may be more interested than their parents, perhaps reducing the overall reduction impact


overcrowding of protected and other natural areas within visitor range of major urban areas - quality of the visitor experience diminished leading to reduced demand


time stresses during active adult years may limit opportunity to participate


increasing environmentalist demand to limit the negative impacts of visitation on habitat and wildlife - a push to expand the 'protection mandate' at the expense of use


government restraint limits ability to host visitors in protected areas responsibly


potential domestic visitors 'put off' by crowding and commercialization in natural areas


increasing shift to 'user pay' philosophy and commercialization of outdoor opportunities


opportunities for virtual appreciation of protected areas may limit demand for the 'real thing'


vistor pressures in remote areas will exceed protected area management capabilities and resources