Outdoor Recreation Growth Drivers

Before we get lost in data related to outdoor recreation activity trends, it is important to reflect on the real growth drivers:

§ even if participation rates remained the same, Canada’s population growth will likely ensure increased demand for outdoor recreation and use of natural/protected areas – the Statistics Canada medium population projection predicts a 14% increase from 2001 to 2021

§ by 2015, most baby boomers will be retired and have increased leisure time – there is ample evidence that growing numbers will seek ‘soft adventures’ in the outdoors

§ world tourism growth projections will regain their strength and optimism after the combined scares of 9-11, SARS, and the economic collapse; Canada’s rebranded, outdoor product sits well with emerging preferences.

However, the rate of growth in demand for outdoor recreation is dependent on a number of variables. The table below summarizes both the potential growth drivers and dampeners.

Growth DRIVERS

Growth DAMPENERS

overall population growth - 14% increase from 2001 to 2021 retiring baby boomers - the largest population cohort, increasingly interested in soft adventures urbanization which tends to increase demand for natural experiences - more than 50% of Canadians now live in the four major urban centres increasing education and related lifetime earnings leads to increased interest and ability to participate increasing interest in experiencing natural environments and wildlife given their scarcity value government/tourism industry promotion of natural area destinations increasing international tourism interest in experiencing Canda's natural areas the relatively low cost of participation in most outdoor recreation activities advances in information technology informs potential visitors and facilitates travel arrangements advances in travel technology make remote areas more accessible

increasing percentage of immigrants, a group significantly under-represented in visits to protected areas - residents born outside Canada will increase from currnt 21% to 28% by 2026 outdoor recreation participation rates generally reduce with age - although emerging seniors may be more interested than their parents, perhaps reducing the overall reduction impact overcrowding of protected and other natural areas within visitor range of major urban areas - quality of the visitor experience diminished leading to reduced demand time stresses during active adult years may limit opportunity to participate increasing environmentalist demand to limit the negative impacts of visitation on habitat and wildlife - a push to expand the 'protection mandate' at the expense of use government restraint limits ability to host visitors in protected areas responsibly potential domestic visitors 'put off' by crowding and commercialization in natural areas increasing shift to 'user pay' philosophy and commercialization of outdoor opportunities opportunities for virtual appreciation of protected areas may limit demand for the 'real thing' vistor pressures in remote areas will exceed protected area management capabilities and resources