Fitness Predictions for 2010 - What's Hot

It's that time of year again - when leadership organizations in the fitness world make their predictions for the upcoming year.  Check out:

• Amercian Council on Exercise (ACE) - www.acefitness.org/pressroom/443/time-and/cost-conscious-workouts-are-among-the/
• American College of Sports Medicine - www.informz.net/acsm/data/images/fitnesstrends2010.pdf
• Sporting Goods Manufacturers Association (SGMA) - http://www.sgma.com/
• Diet Blog - www.diet-blog.com/archives/2009/12/31/top_10_health_trends_of_the_decade.php

Some of the predictions appear a little self-serving:

• increased use of personal trainers
• group personal training (two or three clients together arrange private class or coaching)
• growing importance of proper professional credentials
• increase in demand for group training as participants try to save on expenses.

Others reinforce and remind us of trends that have been in place for some time:

• strength training (both as part of a comprehensive program and as a key to weight reduction)
• core training (focus on muscles of the pelvis, lower back, hips and abdomen)
• growing seniors market
• increasing emphasis on children and obeisity.

Having reviewed over two dozen speculative reports, we would like to weigh in on the six trends or shifts that will likely have the greatest impact on service provider investment decisions - building facilities, buying equipment.

Cost Conscious Fitness

SGMA reports that, for the first time in 20 years, overall sales in the fitness equipment industry "took at hit" and declined.  Fitness participants are looking for ways to achieve efficient workouts at reasonable cost.  ACE reports that gyms will alter programming and training tobetter serve the needs of the cost-conscious member.  SGMA points out that the home fitness market is now roughly three times bigger than the institutional/club market. Look for:

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  In home workouts to gravitate towards smaller, portable fitness equipment - both to lower cost and to fit in the smaller homes that have become the urban norm
  
  
  
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  a return to 'no equipment' options (calisthenics, yoga, body weight exercises) or minimal equipment (stretch cords, step)
  
  
  
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  expect growth in outdoor workouts in parks, on the beach - outdoor boot camps
  
  
  
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  fitness support groups to form using social networking - meeting when convenient, in borrowed spaces, with volunteer leadership.
  
  
  

Functional Fitness

Closely related is the trend towards fitness activities that mimic the functions required in daily life or by one's selected sport(s).  These activities require few tools and appeal to those who want to grab fitness breaks while at home, the office, on a business trip, etc.   Growth can be expected in:

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  any activity that maintains strength, balance and flexibility as we age (yoga, stretching, tai chi)
  
  
  
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  special, equipment-free workouts for skiiers, golfers, and off-season athletes of all ages
  
  
  
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  workouts that reduce the risk of injury when doing essential chores (gardening, snow shoveling).
  
  
  

Fusion and Fun

The advantages of cross-training, blending spirit/mind/body activities, and building in the enjoyment factor are now fully appreciated in the wellness and fitness market.  Pole dancing, belly dancing, Zumba, and hooping are all examples of more fun things to come.  And we will see even more merging of yoga/stretching/pilates, of boxing/Tai Chi, fitness/spa, workout/wellness, strength/flexibility/balance, and other holistic approaches.

Technology and Tools

The next decade will see fitness activity transformed by technology.  Specifically, watch for:

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  increadible breakthroughs in fitness gaming.  Wii is just the beginning as Microsoft brings in gaming systems that use your movements and words as guides (no fingers required).  The new fitness games will be more fun, allow for online coaching and feedback; and fitness will be a by-product of many regular games, as we leave the couch to move around in virtual worlds.
  
  
  
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  increased use of sensor devices (smart pedometers, GPS technology, metabolic sensors built into clothing (GoWear, SenseWear, Bodybugg)
  
  
  
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  web based fitness program advice, program tracking, support groups (e.g. TrainingPeaks, Fit Day, Sparkpeople)
  
  
  
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  a continuous stream of exercise gadgets (some very useful: TRX suspension, kettlebells).
  
  
  

Senior Market

According to SGMA, already 30% of US 'core' fitness participants (those who participate 50 days of more a year) are 55 year of age or older.  Basic demographics and a new appreciation for the value of exercise in offsetting the dibilitating aspects of aging guarantee further expansion.  The fitness market will respond by:

• producing age appropriate programs - low impact, low resistance (e.g. aquabics) 
• supporting specialist classes and opportunities for boomers
• blending mind/body exercise
• developing fitness interventions specific to feared health conditions (dimentia, heart/stroke, osteoperosis, rheumatism, etc.)
• partnering with the health system to provide in-home, personal trainers for those who have limited mobility.

Obeisity

Obeisity is now viewed as a priority health issue throughout North America.  We can expect it to get the attention that smoking cessation received over the past few decades.  There will be particular emphasis on children and youth as the market demands it and health promotion agencies offer incentives and partnership opportunities to participant and provider alike.  Anticipate:

• increased requirements for schools to ensure daily fitness activity
• increased referals and partnerships between the health and recreation/fitness communities
• even more opportunity for tax benefits related to preventive participation
• emulation of the 'Biggest Loser' at fitness and recreation centres across the country
• modified 'Boot Camps', customized for the overweight.

The Big Shift

Overall, we conclude that fitness demand is trending towards the most economical, convenient and practical solutions available.  We have long known that exercise and fitness activity was slipping away from the leisure domain and increasingly viewed as an essential task along with eating, sleeping and household maintenance.  Trends over the past year, along with predictions for 2010 reinforce home based, minimalist approaches - with professional support delivered virtually.

Good news for the consumer - not so good for the fitness centre entrepreneur.

Trends in Adult Physical Activity - Canada, 1994 to 2005

The Canadian Fitness and Lifestyle Research Institute has prepared an analysis of trends in adult physical activity based on Statistics Canada's Canadian Community Health Surveys and earlier National Population Health Surveys. Activity is defined as a daily energy expenditure of 1.5 kilocalories/kilogram of body weight/day - roughly equivalent to walking one half hour every day or more. In general the trend is positive with increasing percentages of Canadian adults meeting this minimum requirement.

Trends in Adult Physical Activity - 1994 to 2005
% adults (20+) meeting minimum requirement (see above)

	1994	1996	1998	2000	2002	2005
Canada	38%	40%	45%	44%	49%	49%
Newfoundland	31	34	39	36	42	42
Prince Edward Island	30	29	38	39	41	40
Nova Scotia	32	37	43	42	45	46
New Brunsick	35	32	37	37	43	44
Quebec	33	36	41	39	45	46
Ontario	38	41	45	43	48	50
Manitoba	42	37	39	41	48	46
Saskatchewan	39	35	41	43	47	47
Alberta	45	46	50	48	53	52
British Columbia	49	47	53	55	58	57
North (Yukon, NWT, Nun)	n/a	n/a	n/a	49	50	49

Source: http://www.cflri.ca/eng/levels/trends.php

In general, men are more likely to be active than women and activity levels decrease with age. See table below which looks at the period from 1994 to 2002.


Trends in Physical Activity - by age and gender

	1994	1996	1998	2000	2002
Total Adults	38%	40%	45%	44%	49%
women	35	38	41	41	46
men	42	42	48	47	52
Total age 20-24	48	51	57	54	60
women	43	48	54	49	54
men	53	54	60	59	65
Total age 25-44	38	41	45	44	50
women	35	40	41	42	48
men	42	42	48	46	53
Total age 45-64	38	39	44	42	48
women	37	38	43	41	47
men	38	40	45	44	48
Total 65+	35	34	38	38	41
women	30	29	33	32	35
men	42	41	45	47	50

Source: http://www.cflri.ca/eng/statistics/surveys/pam2004.php

Adult Physical Activity Increasing - Canada

The following is a direct quote from Statistic Canada's Health Reports (Vol. 18, No. 3, August 2007):

"A comparison of results from the 1996/97 National Population Health Survey with those from the 2005 Canadian community Health Survey shows that the proportion of Canadians in the 10 provinces who reported at least moderately active leisure time rose from 43% to 52%. The increase persists even when the differing age composition of the two periods is taken into account and is evident in both sexes and in all provinces."

"Non-leisure physical activity also increased in the 10 provinces:

• The proportion of people who spent at least six hours a week walking or bicycling as a means of transportion rose from 19% to 24%
• the proportion who usually did heavy work or lifted heavy loads grew from 5% to 8%
• those whose daily activities usually involved lifting or carrying light loads increased from 17% to 25%
• however, the proportion who walk or stand quite a lot during the day declined substantially from 51% to 42% (p <0.05>

Even when adjusted for the differing age composition between the two periods, these trends in physical activity persisted.

Physical Activity/Inactivity for Children and Youth - Canada

The Canadian Fitness and Lifestyle Research Institute's 'Canadian Physical Activity Levels Among Youth (CANPLAY) Study' measures physical activity levels of children and youth objectively, using pedomoters to measure daily steps. We now have three consecutive years of this data showing:

• the percentage of children and youth meeting Canada's physical activity guidelines of 90 minutes of physical activity a day is very low - but has increased from 9% in 2005/2006 to 13% in 2007/2008
• the mean number of steps accumulated per day from 2005 to 2008 for Canadian children and youth has increased somewhat - from approximately 11,300 to approximately 12,000.

Using this data, the Federal-Provincial-Territorial Ministers responsible for Sport, Physical Activity and Recreation in May 2008 set the first ever national physical activity targets for children and youth aged 5-19 years of age:

• by 2015, to increase by seven percentage points the proportion of children and youth who participate in 90 minutes of moderate to vigorous physical activity over and above activities of daily living; and
• by 2015, to increase from 11,500 steps to 14,500 steps per day the average number of steps taken by all children and youth, which is equivalent to an increse of 30 minutes of physical activity per day.

Additional insight:

• boys take more daily steps than girls (about 1,200 more daily steps) - both genders experiencing increases over the three years
• almost twice as many boys as girls met the 16,500 step CPAG criterion in year 3 of the study
• the proportion of young people meeting this criterion generally decreases in older age groups - with almost twice as many 5-10 year olds meeting the CPAG criterionb and 15-19 year olds.

Source: http://www.activehealthykids.ca/ReportCard/PhysicalActivityandInactivity.aspx
http://www.cflri.ca/eng/programs/canplay/documents/CANPLAY_2008_b1.pdf

Top Ten Fitness Trends for 2009 - ACE

Each year, the American Council on Exercise identifies the top ten fitness or workout trends for the comming year. The predictions are based on an annual survey of their network of fitness experts. Their assessment for 2009, according to ACE's Chief Science Officer Cedric X. Bryant:

"The overarching theme for fitness in 2009 is getting more bang for the buck. Consumers will engage in workouts that provide multiple benefits due to time and economic limitations. We will also see continued trends from 2008 including boot-camp style workouts, technology-based workouts, out-of-the-box programming, and an incrased interest in fitness for those who are over 50 years."

The listing of the top fitness trends for 2009 includes:

• boot camp style workouts
• budget friendly workouts - a decline in gym memberships and the use of personal trainers
• specialty classes - yoga and pilates remain strong, with dance-based classes being all the rage
• getting back to basics - basic movements and techniques as a foundation
• circuit training - interval training combining strength training and cardiovascular activity
• kettlebell training
• mixing it up - programming changing from linear progression to undulating, alternate day activities.

For more insight, see: http://www.acefitness.org/media/media_display.aspx?itemid=2543

Another, but complementary perspective can be found on AOL Lifestyle Canada and points to:

• the increasing popularity of smaller fitness and dance studios - less expensive, where you know many of the participants
• fitness boot camp
• ballroom dancing - thanks to Dancing with the Stars
• shift to more fun and games - exergaming (e.g. Wii), hula-hooping, trampolining
• working out at home - downloading a program, investing in home gym equipment
• senior fitness
• short workouts - intense and time efficient
• personalized DVD or Web workouts
• suspension training.

Source: http://lifestyle.aol.ca/article/hot-workout-trends-for-2009/464896/

US Leisure Physical Activity Levels Decline

The US National Health Interview Surveys (NHIS), in both 2000 and 2005 asked how often American adults did vigorous physical activity during their leisure time (for at least 10 minutes that caused heavy sweating and large increases in bething or heart rates) and how often they did light or moderate physical activity (for at least 10 minutes that caused only light seating or a slight to moderate increase in breathing or heart rate).

Those that engaged in regular leisure physical activity (3 days per week or vigorous activity OR five days per week of light or moderate activity) declined from 31.2% to 29.7% of the population. Those that engaged in no physical activity increased from 38.5% to 40%.

Females were more likely than males to engage in no physical activity. However, the decline in regular physical activity was for males, while female participation remained virtually the same.

Activity Level	2000	2005
No physical activity	38.5 %	40%
Some PA, less than regular	30.2%	30.3%
Regular physical activity	31.2%	29.7%

www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/pubs/pubd/hestats/physicalactivity/physicalactivity.htm

Leisure Time Physical Activity Increasing in the US

The US Centre for Disease Control views physical activity as a significant health determinant. In 2007, the CDC reported that the proportion of the US population that reported NO physical activity during the leisure time declined from about 31% in 1989 to about 28% in 2000, and to about 24% in 2007. Conversely, the percentage of the US population that chooses to utilize their discretionary time for physical activity has increased over the past two decades (from 69% to 76%).



http://www.cdc.gov/nccdphp/dnpa/physical/stats/leisure_time.htm

Active Leisure Participation (1992 - 2005)

Matt Hurst, Statistics Canada, reports that between 1992 and 2005, the participation rate in active leisure rose while the time spend doing these activities remained the same. His summary of results follows:

• Participation in exercise, as well as walking and jogging, grew from 1992 to 2005
• Although sports participation remained about the same in 1992 and 2005, people were slightly more likely to go swimming (possibly due to the hotter summer in 2005). Also, Canadians are moving away from organized sports to informal sports activity in their leisure time
• Groups more likely to participated in active leisure while holding other factors constant were: women, university-educated people, married people, thosewith incomes of $60,000 and over, those who reported their lives had a relatively low level of time stress, and those living in British Columbia or Quebec.
  

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/11-008-x/2009001/article/10690-eng.htm