Foresight

Professional Competencies and TrendScanning

2010-02-09T09:54:00.000-08:00

ACE Communities has developed a leadership competency framework that places emphasis on vision, big picture thinking, planning and the change agent function. Many of these elements are also incorporated into the ARPA Vocational Competencies for Recreation and Parks Practitioners, along with capabilities related to leisure education, programming, facility/parks planning and management, community development and all aspects of management.
None of these competencies can be learned at some fixed time in the past and be relied upon as the communities we serve change around us. As leaders and professionals, we must monitor related trends, predictions and prescriptions. Otherwise, we will:

miss emerging opportunities;
create facilities based on yesterday’s demand patterns that will lose relevance over their 50 to 100 year lifespan;
and generally run the risk of simply backing into the future by cleaning up historical patterns and problems.
In a dynamic operating environment, the ability to manage with foresight is the ultimate leadership competency. The list below illustrates the connection between ACE/ARPA leadership competencies and the types of trends captured in this blog

Competency 1: Leisure Education
trends in leisure time availability
trends in consumer target categories (e.g. those with leisure time and discretionary income, those with time but limited funds, those with limited time and funds)
trends in the determinants of leisure (age, income, education, cultural background)
broad trends in leisure interests and demand patterns

Competency 2: Program and Events
leisure activity trends – separate sections on participation in specific activities, fitness, sport, arts/culture, park visitation, and outdoor recreation
tourism trends – understanding recreation away from home, our growing awareness of emerging demand patterns and their implications for local behaviour and demand

Competency 3: Community Development
changing composition and nature of communities (both geographical and communities of interest)
influence of the digital age and social networking on community and service provision
shifts in perceptions of rights and responsibilities – changing view of citizenship
shifts in voluntarism
shifts in government support for the non-profit sector
general trends in non-profit capacity

Competency 4: Human Resource Management
management/leadership trends
shifts in the motivation of volunteers and volunteer supervision
general trends in employee attitudes and values

Competency 5: Diversity
trends in cultural composition of the communities we serve
disability trends
the shifting family
income trends – economically disadvantaged
monitoring gender and sexual orientation – interests, needs, opportunities

Competency 6: Resource Development
trends in government budgets related to recreation, fitness, sport, arts, culture, tourism and parks
trends in government grants to community, arts, culture, recreation, sport, parks and environment activities and groups
fundraising and fund development trends

Competency 7: Marketing and Communications
general trends in consumer behaviour that may have implications
predictions related to market segments (often taken from tourism literature)
trends in how consumers prefer to get their information

Competency 8: Recreation Facility Management
participation information related to facility demand in the future
trends in facility management (e.g. emerging technology, emerging best practices)
implications of socio-demographic shifts for facility demand and design

Competency 9: Parks Management
participation information related to park demand in the future
trends in parks and protected area management
implications of changing communities and modern planning practices (e.g. density) for urban parks, open spaces and corridors.

Arts in the US - 1998 to 2007

2010-01-22T15:14:00.000-08:00

'Americans for the Arts' has just produced the National Arts Index - an annual measure of the health and vitality of the arts in the United States, using 76 national level indicators. The full report is a 'must read' as trends in all 76 areas are reviewed and discussed.

The 2008 National Arts Index score is 98.4, compared to the 2003 baseline of 100 and the previous year's score of 102.6. The Report draws attention to four overall themes:

the arts follow the business cycle - facing tough times in 2008/2009 but looking forward to an arts rebound in 2011
demand for the arts lags supply - the report documents stready growth in the number of artists, art organizations and arts-related employment opportunities; yet one out of three nonprofit arts organizations fail to achieve a balanced budget (even during the strongest years)
there is a noticeable decline in attendance at concerts, plays, opera and museum opportunities; however the percentage of Americans who create art is up, as is the percentage who experience the arts through technology and social media
the competitiveness of the arts is slipping - not holding it's own when you look at uses of potential audience member time, donor/funder commitment, or spending (when compared to non-arts sectors).

From our Foresight perspective, highlights of the report follow:

the % of Americans attending museums declined by 13% between 2003 and 2008
the % of Americans attending performing arts events declined by 17% between 2003 and 2008
the % of Americans personally creating art (e.g. photography, music making and drawing) is growing slightly ahead of the US population growth rate - up from 18.5% to 19.5% between 2003 and 2008
a slightly greater percentage of toal personal consumption was spend on arts and culture (e.g. theatre, books, movies) , growing from 1.78 to 1.83 percent from 2003 to 2008
the share of foundation funding being directed to the arts decreased from 14.8% in 1998 to 10.6% in 2007
the corporate giving share to the arts decreased from 10.3% to 4.6% from 1998 to 2007
artists remained a steady 1.5% share of the total civilian workforce from 1996 to 2008
there has been a steady growth in the number of nonprofit arts organizations over the past decade - from 73.000 to 104,000.

http://www.americansforthearts.org/pdf/information_services/art_index/NAI_full_report_optimized.pdf

Potential for Permanent Shift in Tourist Behaviour

2010-01-20T12:28:00.000-08:00

The UN World Tourism Organization expects global tourism to rebound strongly after "one of the most difficult years", the 2009 travel downturn created by the credit crisis and H1N1 scare. However, after reviewing over 30 independent predictions for tourism in 2010, we react to this prediction with some scepticism.

Over the years, there have been many bad years for the travel industry each with a readily identified cause, 911 and SAARS being the most memorable. However, the past decade has produced a perfect storm of negative tourism drivers, influences that have not been short term and may well lead to a permanent shift in tourist behaviour. Tourist decisions are increasingly influenced by:

concerns for personal security, while travelling and in the destination community
concerns for personal health
increasing travel costs combined with persistent personal economies of restraint
a new awareness of the carbon footprint related to airline travel in particular
shifting air travel policies that frankly reduce travel appeal, and
heavy investments in domestic tourism promotion - as governments, destination marketing organizations and industry groups adjust to reduced international movement.

These influencers have been in place and growing for a full decade. They are changing the way individual consumers think about travel. Together, they are pushing tourists towards a tipping point where permanent behaviour change may result. We are convinced that at least some market segments will make a significant shift requiring major travel industry adjustment.

Personal Security

911 and more recent in-air terrorist attempts have shaken our confidence in air travel safety. Terrorist activities and threats in popular resorts reduce the appeal of each destination involved. Crime against tourists, while not rampant, seems always to be in the news. These issues are of particular concern to security minded older travellers - the booming market.

Health Risk

SAARS dampened our enthusiasm for travel. H1N1 did the same, just as we were getting over SAARS. Potential travellers are now listening carefully to regular warnings about the inevitability of the next epidemic. Many popular destinations (e.g. Dominican Republic) have developed reputations for high tourist illness rates; susceptible travellers are increasing concerned about the return trip, listening to coughs throughout the plane and breathing recycled air. Again, it is the mature traveller that will likely be influenced most.

And don't forget all the new information about exposure to sun and the risk of skin cancer - gradually eroding our 'sun seeker' enthusiasm.

Economic Restraint

The cost of travel is increasing dramatically, particularly when airplanes, RVs and cars are involved. Old habits made it easy to pull out the credit card and deal with cost later; now, many are rethinking their dependence on credit and at the same time realizing how difficult it really is to save the cost of a trip in advance. Travellers have been looking for better deals for some time, with last minute bookings almost becoming the norm. There is a real possibility that even a good deal will seem too expensive. Expect travel demand to remain high, but expect many travellers to sign up for fewer expensive trips, moving towards a more sustainable balance with inexpensive staycations or other forms of domestic tourism.

Carbon Footprint

Not only is air travel expensive, it is also one of the 'grand contributors' to global warming. More information is available all the time and the public is beginning to make life decisions based on environmental impact. Expect airline trip reduction per traveller, continued RV use but with less travel, and general movement away from fuel consuming recreation/tourist activity towards complimentary alternatives (power yacht to sail, motor boat to canoe/kayak, downhill to Xcountry skiing).

Air Travel Change

Air travel is simply less appealing as we move into the second decade of this very volatile century. Consider:

increased security hassles at the airport
fare increases which always feel like we're paying more for less
reduced service and/or more special fees (fuel surcharge, luggage charges, advance seat selection, prefered seats on the place, pets, etc.)
ongoing cuts to routes and the number of planes per route
less legroom and more crowded planes
few service personel per plane (on ground and in air), often more stressed as a result of cuts.

Airlines are hoping that we need our travel fix badly enough that we will tolerate all of this. But this mix of deteriorating airline hospitality factors may turn out to be the straw that breaks our air travel desire (on top of other concerns).

Domestic Travel Promotion

As the travel industry faces reductions in inbound trips and witnesses the move to staycations, their promoters are spending more time and money convincing us to travel locally or in our native countries. The impact of several years of mass social marketing, designed to convince us that patriotic travel is best anyway, will have a cumulative impact. It could well be the final factor that changes travel behaviour permanently, for some market segments.

The Great Outdoor Recreation Debate

2010-01-19T12:14:00.000-08:00

Over the past couple of decades, we have concluded that demand for outdoor recreation will remain high and more stable that facility oriented and team-based pursuits. This assumption was shaken a couple of years ago by two publications:

Richard Louv in his book, 'Last Child in the Woods: Saving Our Children from Nature-Deficit Disorder', raises concerns that our children have little or no experience of what it's like to explore the great outdoors. Today's child is being deprived of the knowledge and the spiritual and emotional grounding that nature offers.
Oliver Pergmas and Patricis Zaradic, in their article 'Evidence for a fundamental and pervasive shift away from nature-based recreation', looked at 16 time series variables before concluding that we are witness to a general downtrend in per capita participation in nature recreation. www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.0709893105

Possible reasons for the identified decline in participation rates include:

growth in ethnic populations that often have a different view of nature and the wilderness
increasing cost of travel as fuel costs increase - as well as increases in time required related to urban development and traffic congestion
the shift over the years to more expensive forms of outdoor accommodation (e.g. RV camping) and the negative impact of the economic downturn in this regard
increasing competition from various forms of electronic entertainment that keep us indoors
crowding and congestion at destination points, and
increasing awareness of the environmental impacts that accompany overuse.

A rebuttal of sorts has come in the form of a 2009 presentation by Ken Cordell, Carter Betz, Gary Green and Shela Mou - a team that has kept the outdoor industry informed about trends for years ( http://warnell.forestry.uga.edu/nrrt/NSRE/2009R6.ppt#536 ). The team concludes that:

between 2000 and early 2008, the total number of Americans who participated in one or more outdoor activities increased by 4.4%
at the same time, the total number of days of participation increased from 67 billion to 84 billion
between 2000 and 2007, the total number of people participating in nature-based activities grew by 3.1%, while the number of participation days grew by about 32% - over all 50 nature-based activities studied, per capita days increased by more than 22%.

This latest analysis indicates that, when you look at total annual recreation activity days:

hunting and fishing is holding steady
backcounry activity trends are mixed but steady (with recent increases in backpacking and mountain climbing)
non-motor boating activity trends are mixed but experiencing a slight decline (kayaking grew in the first part of the decade and has held its place as the most popular activity in this category)
both snow skiing and snowboarding are experiencing significant decline
motorized activity trends are mixed: off-highway vehicle driving is up; snowmobiling is down; motorboating, personal watercraft, and waterskiing all steady
viewing/photographing nature grew rapidly mid decade and is relatively stable at that new level or plateau.

The bottom line appears to be that while per capita participation rates are generally down in the outdoor recreation field, visitor numbers are actually up due to a combination of more frequent visits and population growth over the same time period.

As if to confirm the above summary, Leisure Trends Group reported that outdoor product sales were down 2.2% in 2009. Based on point-of-sale data, chain retail sales dropped 3%, specialty shop sales dropped 4.1%, while internet sales increased 4.5%. http://www.leisuretrends.com/

However, the 2009 Topline Report of the Outdoor Industry Foundation used an online survey process and concluded that per capita participation rates were actually higher in 2008 than in 2007 for all outdoor activities included in the survey except kayaking and skiing. The debate is not yet conclusive. http://outdoorindustry.org/research.new.php?action=detail&research_id=72

Meanwhile, those interested in ensuring continued public interest in the outdoors are being encouraged to take action:

Louv speaks to may ways of becoming active in a "No child Left Inside" movement
USA Today reports on a burgeoning, nationwide "back-to-nature movement to reconnect children with the outdoors", and
there's a new American Girl Doll, Lanie designed by American Girl in partnership with the Natinal Wildlife Federation (NWF) in support of the organization's "Be Out There" campaign. She is intended to help girls play with growing a garden, bird-watch, camp, create a butterfly habitat, etc. www.parentdish.com/2009/12/30/new-american-girl-doll-encourages-healthy-outoor-play/

Fitness Predictions for 2010 - What's Hot

2010-01-18T17:04:00.000-08:00

It's that time of year again - when leadership organizations in the fitness world make their predictions for the upcoming year. Check out:

Amercian Council on Exercise (ACE) - www.acefitness.org/pressroom/443/time-and/cost-conscious-workouts-are-among-the/
American College of Sports Medicine - www.informz.net/acsm/data/images/fitnesstrends2010.pdf
Sporting Goods Manufacturers Association (SGMA) - http://www.sgma.com/
Diet Blog - www.diet-blog.com/archives/2009/12/31/top_10_health_trends_of_the_decade.php

Some of the predictions appear a little self-serving:

increased use of personal trainers
group personal training (two or three clients together arrange private class or coaching)
growing importance of proper professional credentials
increase in demand for group training as participants try to save on expenses.

Others reinforce and remind us of trends that have been in place for some time:

strength training (both as part of a comprehensive program and as a key to weight reduction)
core training (focus on muscles of the pelvis, lower back, hips and abdomen)
growing seniors market
increasing emphasis on children and obeisity.

Having reviewed over two dozen speculative reports, we would like to weigh in on the six trends or shifts that will likely have the greatest impact on service provider investment decisions - building facilities, buying equipment.

Cost Conscious Fitness

SGMA reports that, for the first time in 20 years, overall sales in the fitness equipment industry "took at hit" and declined. Fitness participants are looking for ways to achieve efficient workouts at reasonable cost. ACE reports that gyms will alter programming and training tobetter serve the needs of the cost-conscious member. SGMA points out that the home fitness market is now roughly three times bigger than the institutional/club market. Look for:

In home workouts to gravitate towards smaller, portable fitness equipment - both to lower cost and to fit in the smaller homes that have become the urban norm
a return to 'no equipment' options (calisthenics, yoga, body weight exercises) or minimal equipment (stretch cords, step)
expect growth in outdoor workouts in parks, on the beach - outdoor boot camps
fitness support groups to form using social networking - meeting when convenient, in borrowed spaces, with volunteer leadership.

Functional Fitness

Closely related is the trend towards fitness activities that mimic the functions required in daily life or by one's selected sport(s). These activities require few tools and appeal to those who want to grab fitness breaks while at home, the office, on a business trip, etc. Growth can be expected in:

any activity that maintains strength, balance and flexibility as we age (yoga, stretching, tai chi)
special, equipment-free workouts for skiiers, golfers, and off-season athletes of all ages
workouts that reduce the risk of injury when doing essential chores (gardening, snow shoveling).

Fusion and Fun

The advantages of cross-training, blending spirit/mind/body activities, and building in the enjoyment factor are now fully appreciated in the wellness and fitness market. Pole dancing, belly dancing, Zumba, and hooping are all examples of more fun things to come. And we will see even more merging of yoga/stretching/pilates, of boxing/Tai Chi, fitness/spa, workout/wellness, strength/flexibility/balance, and other holistic approaches.

Technology and Tools

The next decade will see fitness activity transformed by technology. Specifically, watch for:

increadible breakthroughs in fitness gaming. Wii is just the beginning as Microsoft brings in gaming systems that use your movements and words as guides (no fingers required). The new fitness games will be more fun, allow for online coaching and feedback; and fitness will be a by-product of many regular games, as we leave the couch to move around in virtual worlds.
increased use of sensor devices (smart pedometers, GPS technology, metabolic sensors built into clothing (GoWear, SenseWear, Bodybugg)
web based fitness program advice, program tracking, support groups (e.g. TrainingPeaks, Fit Day, Sparkpeople)
a continuous stream of exercise gadgets (some very useful: TRX suspension, kettlebells).

Senior Market

According to SGMA, already 30% of US 'core' fitness participants (those who participate 50 days of more a year) are 55 year of age or older. Basic demographics and a new appreciation for the value of exercise in offsetting the dibilitating aspects of aging guarantee further expansion. The fitness market will respond by:

producing age appropriate programs - low impact, low resistance (e.g. aquabics)
supporting specialist classes and opportunities for boomers
blending mind/body exercise
developing fitness interventions specific to feared health conditions (dimentia, heart/stroke, osteoperosis, rheumatism, etc.)
partnering with the health system to provide in-home, personal trainers for those who have limited mobility.

Obeisity

Obeisity is now viewed as a priority health issue throughout North America. We can expect it to get the attention that smoking cessation received over the past few decades. There will be particular emphasis on children and youth as the market demands it and health promotion agencies offer incentives and partnership opportunities to participant and provider alike. Anticipate:

increased requirements for schools to ensure daily fitness activity
increased referals and partnerships between the health and recreation/fitness communities
even more opportunity for tax benefits related to preventive participation
emulation of the 'Biggest Loser' at fitness and recreation centres across the country
modified 'Boot Camps', customized for the overweight.

The Big Shift

Overall, we conclude that fitness demand is trending towards the most economical, convenient and practical solutions available. We have long known that exercise and fitness activity was slipping away from the leisure domain and increasingly viewed as an essential task along with eating, sleeping and household maintenance. Trends over the past year, along with predictions for 2010 reinforce home based, minimalist approaches - with professional support delivered virtually.

Good news for the consumer - not so good for the fitness centre entrepreneur.

Leisure Behaviour in the Digital Age

2009-11-16T12:13:00.000-08:00

Digital Behaviours

Management Trends

2009-11-15T12:10:00.001-08:00

Management Trends

Trends Related to Each Benefit Message

2009-11-15T12:02:00.000-08:00

Benefits Trends

Shift to Home Based Leisure

2009-11-15T11:35:00.001-08:00

Shift to Home Based Leisure

Shifting Activity Patterns

2009-11-15T11:24:00.001-08:00

Shifting Activity Patterns

Emerging Leisure Classes

2009-11-15T11:13:00.001-08:00

Emerging Leisure Classes

Managing within the big picture

2009-11-15T10:54:00.001-08:00

Managing Within the Big Picture

Why pay attention to trends?

2009-11-15T10:39:00.000-08:00

Why Trends

Fundraising Trends - Overview of Recent Literature

2009-10-16T11:08:00.000-07:00

The following observations are based on a review of over 30 reports, websites and blogs that all addressed the future of fund development from a North American perspective. Several of the most prominent sites are listed as links at the bottom of the post for those who want additional detail or to remain in touch with these sources.

The Fundraising Environment

the financial environment will continue to dampen fund development returns for several years - low investment returns, diminished corporate profit, high levels of unemployment, low confidence levels of many workers
the fundrasing environment is increasingly competitive - many more charities, with increasing evidence of need and increasing professionalism/sophistication of fund development programs
fundraisers remain optimistic that philanthropic giving will grow
trust in charities has been declining and will have to be regained through clear demonstration of social accountability, communication of how raised funds are deployed, and reduction in costs associated with fundraising
we can expect to see increased regulation due to donor concern about allocation of funds, fundraising overhead and inadequate organizational accountability.

Where is the money going to come from?

wealth is increasingly held in the hands of individuals representing visible minorities - immigrants to Canada are more likely to donate and to make larger donations than Canadians in general
individuals continue to lead the way in major gifts and we can expect this to continue as baby boomer executives and entrepreneurs move into retirement and reposition their assets
corporate potential is slowly being realized and will accelerate as social responsibility and accountability to the communities that corporations serve become mandatory components of business strategy - we will continue to see a shift from corporate philanthropy to cause related marketing
social venture philanthropy will grow dramatically as successful entrepreneurs reduce work commitments, seek more engagement in their communities, and begin to look at their investments as leverage or 'social capital'
mega foundations (e.g. Gates, Clinton) will continue to appear and retain their propensity to invest in mega solutions or organizations - not in the smaller organizations that have limited capacity but often the greatest financial need.

What fundraising techniques will be most productive?

direct marketing will continue to produce the greatest returns from mass fundraising (excluding major gifts)
use of sophisticated data bases to segment markets and customize asks will increase - the only way to go
online giving will continue to expand as our understanding of how best to work with online communities increases
social networking will be the key for many charities - working with the committed to get messages out and personalize the online ask
there will be increased use of regular giving (e.g. monthly) given ease of transaction and the relative appeal of dedicating smaller amounts on a consistent basis
there is immense planned giving potential - Canadians over the age of 50 represent 26% of the population, have 60% of the descretionary spending power and 75% of the personal wealth - $1 trillion will change hands through inheritance in Canada over the next 20 years
many believe that 'gifts in kind' will be the next big wave in philanthropy - see 'In Kind Canada' and 'Gifts In Kind International'.

Shifts in Donor Interest and Behaviour

increasingly donors want customized interaction with their charities - even relatively small donors expect you to know how often they give, what their interests are, and how they want to be contacted - we all want to be treated like major donors
we are seeing a general shift from regular giving to general causes to an increased focus on more specific projects and initiatives that the donor believes will make a difference; from obligation-driven giving to excitement-driven giving patterns
donors are increasingly focused on issues rather than organizations and are prepared to shift their donor allegiance rapidly if a more effective way or team can be found to make the impact they want
smaller donors will increasingly direct their gifts to the smaller organizations that are clearly in need recognizing that larger 'charities' such as hospitals and universities are already well supported by the taxpayer, fees and the larger donor

Shifts in Overall Fund Development Strategy

the most successful non-profits have been able to integrate philanthropy into the culture of the organization
fund development is more information dependent than ever and open source software is permitting more organizations than ever to develop and manage data bases
the most effective organizations are those who are donor centered and have developed an integrated, relationship based program (pyramid) - success is more about execution of the FD program than any other trend or factor
increasingly the effective organization will be the one that communicates their belief in the 'donor as expert'
customization is transcending mass appeals - increasingly software will be used to allow a donor to target their gift based on their personal interests and motivations
increasingly campaigns and individual fundrasing programs will be 'generation based' - with components and approaches customized to the unique interests, values and communication requirements of each age cohort
organizations will increasingly work together to tap into issue-focused giving - allowing the donor to determine the percentage of their gift that goes to each organization in the collective
regular donors (e.g. monthly) will increasingly be viewed as 'members' in the organization and accorded appropriate benefits as part of ongoing stewardship strategies
increasingly successful organizations will use people to reach people (e.g. social networking, member messaging, event invitations)
emphasis will shift from finding donors to making your cause and organization findable - relying on search capabilities to support those with an interest
there will be increased focus on ethics at the governance, management and development team levels - trust is increasingly the currency of success.

Sources:
http://www.the-cma.org/downloads/whitepapers/CornerstoneFileAuditWhitepaper09.pdf
http://charitymash.com/
http://www.givingtrends.com/
http://philanthromedia.org/
http://www.philanthropyjournal.org/
http://www.onphilanthropy.com/
http://www.fundraisingsuccessmag.com/
http://philanthropy.com/
http://www.kciphilanthropy.com/

Fundraising Performance - Canada, 2003 to 2007

2009-10-16T10:12:00.000-07:00

The Cornerstone Group published 'Fundraising Trends & Challenges in the Canadian Direct Marketing Sector in January 2009 (see link below). The data is based on a comprehensive five year udit of the cumulative direct marketing fundraising efforts of 32 Cornerstone clients. Highlights include (direct quotes):

on average, Not for Profits are raising much more each year than they were five years ago, up 20%, from 4% fewer donors
during the same time frame, calendar year revenue per donor increased substantially, outpacing inflation (9%) by 15% ($52 to $64)
the 24% increase in revenue per donor is attributed to larger one time gifts and an influx of monthly donors
there is also strong growth in monthly donor programs. File sizes grew by 28% ($165million to $212 million) over the five year period and per donor revenue grew by 58% ($21 to $34)
there has been a slight decline in retention rates for all donor segments
new donors (those who made their first gift to an organization in the previous year) renewal rates dropped 5% (39% in 2003 to 34% in 2007)
in comparison with 2003, almost 20% fewer new donors were added in 2007 (536 milliion to 452 million) - however the average gift rose by 23% ($29 to $36) keeping the revenue from new donors fairly flat
there are now more than four times the number of new donors, per organization from online initiatives than five years ago (9 milion to 40 million.

Source: http://www.the-cma.org/downloads/whitepapers/CornerstoneFileAuditWhitepaper09.pdf

Facility Management Trends

2009-10-15T13:16:00.000-07:00

A number of organizations and websites track facility management (FM) trends; see links below. This overview is based on a review of these and other reports, blogs and websites, building on the common themes. We have identified five ongoing trends and issues, and four facility management trends that appear to be emerging solutions.

Ongoing FM Trends/Issues

Sustainability remains a dominant challenge or trend in facility management, with emphasis shifting rapidly from a focus on cost control, to a more balanced approach that emphasizes the triple bottom line, corporate responsibility, brand and image. Integrated resource management approaches are of increasing interest. Energy management systems will be part of a smart grid, with many facilities generating/contributing; load management strategies will be common place. Water management is emerging as the critical priority as the world gradually accepts the vulnerability of this critical resource.

Risk Management awareness and accountability is both increasing and becoming more complex in response to:

our new awareness of the potential of terrorism to disrupt operations and lives
increasing sensitivity to threats related to large scale natural disasters
enhanced awareness of health threats and the related responsibilities of anyone or any facility that congregates large numbers of workers and/or customers
our increasing reliance on data and information for business continuity

Efficiency and Cost Control pressures and measures have been in place for some time. What is changing is the growing realization that past cost cutting approaches may have harmed our ability to be productive and to produce quality product or service - both critical to success and even survival in an increasingly competitive age. Facility managers are increasingly seen to be part of the solution and facilities themselves are now been seen as critical strategic assets, not simply costs to be controlled.

We are managing the largest collection of aging buildings in modern history - the logical result of decades of growth followed by decades of restraint. Deferred maintenance challenges are becoming overwhelming; we still lack sufficient preventive and capital maintenance budgets to do the job. The weakened state of many of our physical assets is pushing us towards new/replacement facilities we can ill afford and away from facility reinvestment and renovation that could otherwise have been a viable option. Morevover, so much has changed in the way we do business, the way we work and the demands of the consumer that these inflexible, aging facilites are often just not up to the modern job.

Finally, we are all human resource managers (regardless of the level at which we work) and more than ever must learn to cope with the challenges of an aging workforce, cultural diversity in the workplace, demand for increased workplace quality and the need to house a number of different and not always complimentary workstyles. Moreover, modern information and communication technology is reducing the need to work at a single workstation - many modern managers and workers are highly mobile.

Emerging Big Picture Solutions

Facility managers are now required to rise above the tactics related to management of their property and participate fully at the corporate strategy level. Buildings and other assets must be developed and managed so as to complement brand, support corporate culture, and contribute broader value to the communities they serve. As a key business element, each facility will have to be conceptualized, created and operated to support productivity, innovation, worker satisfaction and positive public perception.

The facility designer, developer and manager must deliver this strategic value in both short and long term. The greatest challenges relate to the need to maintain flexibility, knowing with certainty that functionality, technology and worker/customer demands will change dramatically over time. Now and in the future, the emphasis will be on maximizing usage and practicality - while adopting every new approach that clearly offers return on investment.

Buildings have traditionally contained a number of separate and increasingly sophisticated systems (heating, security, lighting, waste management, etc.) - building automation systems (BAS). We are rapidly moving towards integration, a single BAS - driven by the need for efficiency, holistic green concepts and the logic of integrated resource management. Building Information Modeling (BIM) creates a virtual information model that can be passed from design team, to contractor, to building owner. Everything is coming together through platform software providing a common portal - Integrated Workplace Management Systems (IWMS).

The final trend is actually the need to effectively address the change imperative inherent in all of the above. Facility managers are increasingly required to handle complexity and the pace of change AND to support others dealing with the same pressures. It is not longer acceptable to simply wait to be somewhat overwhelmed and respond once the industry has come to agreement on new best practices or standards; our competitive environment requires more proactive approaches. Facility managers will increasingly be called upon to anticipate changing needs and to work with building stakeholders to manage with foresight.

Sources:
International Facility Management Association - http://www.ifmafoundation.org/
FM Link - http://www.fmlink.com/
The McMorrow Sustainable Facilities Management Report - http://www.mcmorrowreport.com/
Today's Facility Manager - http://todaysfacilitymanager.com/

International Trends in Park Tourism

2009-10-14T16:31:00.000-07:00

In 2003, Paul Eagles presented a paper with this title to the World Parks Congress in Durban South Africa. He identified 17 macro trends, each listed below. Please see his paper using the link below for elaboration and full discussion.

Trend 1: Growing demands for democratic forms of government translate into increased public participation and collaboration in park planning.

Trend 2: Increased accessibility of sophisticated technology and science means that visitors are knowledgeable about what opportunities exist and the consequences of management actions.

Trend 3: An aging population means that there will be significant demand shifts in what activities, settings and experiences visitors seek from parks areas.

Trend 4: As educational levels rise, demand for appreciative and learning opportunities associated with parks and protected areas will increase.

Trend 5: In the medium term, advances in the technology of travel and reductions in costs will result in increased demand for park and protected area opportunities distant from one's residence.

Trend 6: Continued growing sensitivity to environmental, social, cultural and economic impacts of human activity lead to new and different roles of protected areas, often to multiuse sites similar to biosphere reserves. Private ecolodges and nature reserves develop, funded by tourism.

Trend 7: Growing knowledge about visitors, parks and their interactions lead to more sophisticated and effective methods of managing park-based tourism.

Trend 8: The global increase in park area, number of parks and park visitation outstrips the capability of many park institutions.

Trend 9: Park management shifts gradually from government agency structures, with centralized financial control, to parastatal forms, with financially flexible and entrepreneurial forms of management.

Trend 10: Park management funding increasingly shfits from government grants to park tourism fees and charges. This results in higher levels of visitor focus in management.

Trend 11: Park agencies develop increased sophistication in their understanding and management of park visitation and tourism.

Trend 12: Increasing globalization of information, business and government results in increasing international cooperation among park agencies, park visitors and non-governmental organizations.

Trend 13: Foreign aid grants from MGOs will increasing fund biodiversity conservation and sustainable tourism development in developing nations.

Trend 14: Increasing demands for resource exploitation, such as oil, gas, minerals, water and wood, place stronger pressure for the exportation of park resources

Trend 15: A sustainable number of parks and their tourism will be destroyed by war, famine and civil unrest, expecially in Africa and Asia.

Trend 16: International travel will increase until decreasing supplies of inexpensive light oil result in large increases in cost between 2010 and 2020. As the energy costs increase, international travel will decline. Substantial pressure will take place on many parks and protected areas.

Trend 17: Global climate change will affect most parks and most park tourism.

Source: http://www.conservationfinance.org/Workshop_Conferences/WPC_documents/Apps_12_Eagles_v1.pdf

Canadian Recreational Spending - shifting to home based

2009-10-14T11:37:00.000-07:00

Frances Kremarik, published 'The Changing Recreational Spending Patterns of Canadian Families' in Canadian Social Trends (Spring 2002). The data (1982 to 1999) reflected a period with two recessions where average after tax income was only 4% higher at the end of a 17 year period. Income growth did not keep pace with spending increases as average household expenditures increased by 10% of the period (compared to 4% increase in income). Spending on recreation increased by almost 40% over the period.

While some of the shifts within the recreation category can be attributed to increasing costs of products or services, and others to the onslaught of the digital age; what is perhaps most significant is the obvious shift towards spending on home-based recreation and leisure. Spending on recreation fees and athletic equipment increased only 8% in each sub-category - much less than the overall 39% increase. Event admissions were the only non-home based sub-category to increase faster than this overall rate - at 47%.

Note the huge influence of increased computer expenditure on the overall trend optics.

Average annual $ spent by all Canadian households

Public Sector Expenditures on Recreation and Culture - Canada, 1988 to 2005

2009-10-13T17:36:00.000-07:00

Harry Kitchen (Trent University) and Enid Slack (UofT) produced a paper in 2006 entitled 'Trends in Public Finance in Canada'. The tables below are taken from this paper - modified to focus on recreation, culture, environment and resource conservation.

Distribution of Municipal Government Expenditures
by category - Canada, 1988 and 2004

Distribution of Provincial/Territorial Expenditures
by category - Canada, 1989 and 2005

Distribution of Federal Expenditures

by category - Canada, 1989 and 2005

Essentially, the data demonstrates that public expenditure on recreation and culture more than held its own against other government expenditures at both the municipal and federal levels - but lost budget share at the provincial/territorial level. This in spite of relatively large increases in other areas:

at the municipal level the greatest increases from 1988 to 2004 were in housing (1.8% of total budget in 1988, up to 3.7% in 2004), social services (7.4% to 10.2%), environment (14.6% to18.1%), health (2% to 2.5%) and protection (14.8% to 16.7%)
at the provincial/territorial level the greatest increases related to health (26% in 1989, up to 33.6% in 2005)
at the federal level the greatest budget pressures related to health (from 5.7% of the total budget in 1989 to 10.9% by 2005), environment (0.4% to 0.9%) and general purpose transfers (6.4% to 10.8%).

Source: http://www.utoronto.ca/mcis/imfg/pdf/trends%20in%20public%20finance%20in%20Canada%20-%20June%201.pdf

Rapid Aging of the Working Age Population

2009-10-13T16:31:00.000-07:00

As baby boomers near retirment age, their influence on the workforce is dramatic. The overall Canadian workforce grew to 21.7 million by 2006, an increase of 6.4% over 2001; but the number of workers aged 55-64 grew by 28% during the same period. This age group represents 16.9% of the working age population today (up from 14.1% in 2001), and is heading for 20% of the working age population by 2016.

Employers will face a number of challenges in the near future related to this rapidly aging workforce:

there will likely be fewer Canadians ready to enter the workforce than there are people about to retire
knowledge transfer as many senior workers retire at the same time
health and benefits issues related to an older workforce
employee retention as other firms compete for mature talent.

Source: http://www12.statcan.ca/census-recnesement/2006/as-sa/97-551/p8-eng.cfm

Poverty in Canada - 2000 to 2004

2009-10-13T16:12:00.000-07:00

Approximately 3.5 million Canadians were living in poverty in 2004, more than 11% of the population. The proportion of Canadian families living in poverty has declined somewhat between 2000 and 2004 - the only exception being male lone-parent families.

Per cent of Families in Low Income (LICO) - 2000 to 2004

Families in British Columbia reported the highest poverty rates in 2004 (10.3% living below the Low Income Cut Off. Family poverty rates were lowest in PEI (3.2%).

Source: http://www.ccsd.ca/factsheets/economic_security/poverty/index.htm

Family Trends - Canada (1996, 2001 and 2006)

2009-10-13T15:44:00.000-07:00

Statistics Canada has pulled together trend data related to the Canadian family - from the 1996, 2001 and 2006 censuses:

http://www12.statcan.ca/english/census06/data/trends/Table_1.cfm?T=PR&PRCODE=01&GEOCODE=01&GEOLVL=PR

Statistics Canada produced the following highlights regarding family from the 2006 census:

in 2006 there were 8,896,800 census families in Canada
married couples constituted the largest group (68.6%), althought their proportion has been steadily decreasing for the past 20 years
the number of common-law couple families increased 18.9% between 2001 and 2006, more than five times the 3.5% gain for married couple families and more than twice the growth of 7.8% for lone-parent families
lone-parent famiilies headed by men increased 14.6% during the five years prior to 2006, more than twice the growth of lone-parent families headed by women (6.3%)
for the first time there were more census families comprised of couples without children (42.7%) than with children (41.4%)
there was a signficant growth in the number of same-sex couples - a 32.6% increase from 34,200 in 2001 to 45,300 in 2006; this growth was more than 5 times the growth observed for opposite-sex couples
households have been declining in size over the past century; in 2006, there were more than three times as many one-person households (26.8%) as those consisting of five or more people (8.7%)
two-thirds (65.7%) of Canada's total of 5.6 million children aged 14 and under lived with married parents in 2006, a decline from 81.2% in 1986
a growing proportion of children aged 4 and under had a mother in her forties as more and more women delay childbearing. In 2001. 7.8% of children aged 4 and under had a mother who was between the ages of 40 and 49, by 2006 this propotion had increased to 9.4%
the proportion of young adults aged 20 to 29 who lived in their parental home continued to increase, following a 20 year upward trend. In 2006; 43.5% of young adults lived at home, up substantially from 32.1% two decades earlier.

Source: http://www12.statcan.ca/census-recensement/2006/as-sa/97-553/pl-eng.cfm

Visible Minorities in Canada

2009-10-13T14:52:00.000-07:00

We have known for some time that Canada's visible minority population is on the rise, increasing as a percentage of the overall population. Updated data has been provided by Statistics Canada based on the 1996, 2001 and 2006 censuses:

Of course, the vast majority of immigrants and other visible minority populations cluster in the larger population centres; by 2001, over 35% of the populations of both Toronto and Vancouver were classified as visible minority.

By 2001, almost four million residents of Canada were self-classified (in the census) as belonging to a visible minority group. Of these:

25.8% or 1,029395 were Chinese
23.0% or 917,075 were South Asian
16.6% of 662,210 were Black
7.7% or 308,575 were Filipino
7.6% or 303,965 were Arab/West Asian
5.4% or 216,975 were Latin American
5% of 198,880 were Southeast Asian
2.5% or 100,660 were Korean, and
1.8% or 73,315 were Japanese.

Source: www.ccsd.ca/factsheets/

Canada's Seniors

2009-10-13T12:20:00.000-07:00

The 2006 census reported that Canada's 65 and over population made up a record 13.7% of the total population. Between 2001 and 2006 the number of Canadians aged 65 or older increased 11.5%, a rate that will increase substantially as the baby boomers hit 65.

Source: http://www.sustreport.org/signals/canpop_age.html

We are also seeing a significant increase in the number of persons aged 80 years of over. The following table trends this age group from 1956 to 2006.

Number of Persons aged 80 years of over in the Canadian population - 1956 to 2006

Source: http://www12.statcan.ca/census-recensement/2006/as-sa/97-551/figures/c5-eng.cfm

In general, the financial situation of seniors has improved over the past quarter century. Between 1980 and 2003, the average total income (after tax) received by senior couples increased by 18%, from $36,000 to $42,800. Incidence of low income has declined generally; however, the incidence of low-income among elderly women living alone is the highest of any category. http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/89-519-x/2006001/4122092-eng.htm

Average Market Income for Seniors in Canada - 2000 to 2004

Source: http://www.ccsd.ca/factsheets/economic_security/income/index.htm

This decade we are seeing an increase in employment activity for seniors, likely to increase even further given the recent economic downturn, loss of investment value and uncertainty about various retirement income sources.

Seniors Employment - 2000 to 2006
# employed full time and part time

Source: www.ccsd.ca/factsheets

Canadian Demographics - Overview

2009-10-13T11:28:00.000-07:00

By the 2006 census, there were 31,612,897 people in Canada, a growth rate of 5.4% between 2001 and 2006 (compared to just 4% in the previous five year period). This was the highest growth rate of any G8 country. Significant elements to the growth pattern include:

the fact that two-thirds of Canada's population growth was a result of net international migration
Alberta and Ontario were responsibile for two-thirds of the nation's population increase - with Alberta having a growth rate of 10.6% from 2001 to 2006, twice the national average
the vast majority of population growth took place in census metropolitan areas and by 2006 more than 80% of Canadians were living in urban areas
between 2001 and 2006, the growth rate of peripheral municipalities surrrounding the central municipalities of Canada's 33 census metropolitan areas was double the national average (11.1% vs. 5.4%)
the rural population increased only 1% from 2001 to 2006 with most of the rural growth taking place close to urban centres (4.7% growth compared to 0.1% for more remote rural areas)

Canada's population pyramid continues to age, one year at a time, with only the age of immigrants changing the pattern. By 2006:

parents of baby boomers (born 1922 to 1938; aged 68-84 in 2006) represent fewer than 10% of the overall population
the second world war cohort (born bewteen 1939 and 1945; aged 61-67 in 2006) made up 6.4%
baby bommers (born from 1946 to 1965) made up more than 40% of the population
the baby busters followed (born from 1966 to 19784; aged 32-40 in 2006), a period when fertility declined dramatically in Canada, represented 12.4%
while the shadow baby boomers, children of baby boomers (born from 1975 to 1995; aged 11-31 in 2006) made up 27.5% of all Canadians.

Source: http://www12.statcan.ca/census-recensement/2006/as-sa/97-551/figures/c7-eng.cfm

Within a few years there will be more Canadians aged 65 or older than children aged less than 15 years.

Aging Cultural Assets - Canada, 1961 to 2007

2009-10-08T14:17:00.000-07:00

The Simon Fraser University 'Centre of Expertise on Culture and Communities' published 'Under Construction: The State of Cultural Infrastructure in Canada' in 2008. Along with various appendices, it is the most comprehensive report available on the topic. Appendix A, by Maria Waltman Dashko, reviews and analyses data sources, including the following table that looks at the average age of Canada's culutral assets from 1961 to 2007.

In general, the significant aging of these assets occurred from the early 1990's on as government funding for new facilities diminished.. By 2007, the average age of a Canadian performance venue was 8.8 years older than it had been in 1976. Librairies, museums, science centres, and public archives are also aging. Ironically, the only category where the average age of new development is decreasing relates to historical sites - not the age of the historial site itself, but the average age of improvements to and developments on those sites.

Average age in years of Canada's Cultural Assets
- 1991 to 2007

Source: http://www.cultureandcommunities.ca/downloads/Under-construction/AppA-State-of-Data.pdf

Culture Institutions Trends - Canada, 1993 to 2004

2009-10-08T11:49:00.000-07:00

Although there was growth in the number of movie theatres in Canada in the late 1990's, the total available in 2004 was virtually the same as eight years earlier in 1996. The number of heritage related institutions grew over the same period - most dramatically in the museum category which more than doubled.

Estimate of Number of Selected Cultural Institutions

When you look at the number of individuals in the population per institution, it becomes clear that there are fewer movie theatres per 1000 population; with museums and historic sites increasing faster than population growth; and archives expanding in number but generally keeping up with population growth.

Number of Individuals in Population per Institution

Source:

http://www.cultureandcommunities.ca/downloads/Under-construction/Under-construction.pdf

http://www.cultureandcommunities.ca/downloads/Under-construction/App-State-of-Data.pdf

Sport Trends - the Canadian Government Perspective

2009-10-07T16:06:00.000-07:00

At the 2007 Senior Leaders Forum (Halifax), Sport Canada shared the trends that were influencing policy development and program delivery. They are clearly a sub-set of all the trends facing sport and it is important for stakeholders to appreciate the trends that are capturing political interest at the national level:

Canadians are growing more sedentary and obesity rates have been steadily climbing. The 2004 Canadian Community Health Survey indicated that there were an estimated 500,000 obese children. This statistic emphasizes the importance of improving sport participation and reducing physical inactivity as a means of proactive health care.
Canadians are not participating in sport at the same levels as they have in the past. According to the Conference Board of Canada’s 2005 report of the socio-economic benefits of sport, sport participation has dropped from 45% in 1992 to 34% in 1998 to 31% in 2005. Federal-Provincial/Territorial bilateral agreements have been created to help increase sport participation and development; a collaborative effort that is a result of greater attention to the concerns about declining participation rates.
Canada ’s sport performance at the highest international level has improved in winter sports but declined in summer sports. Sport Canada has partnered with the Canadian Olympic Committee, Canadian Paralympic Committee, the Vancouver Organizing Committee (VANOC) to create Podium Canada in an effort to further improve Canada’s Olympic and Paralympic performance for both the summer and winter sports.
The Canadian sport system is highly dependent on the support of volunteers. Over two million Canadians are engaged in volunteer work as sport coaches, trainers, administrators or volunteers in other capacities. However, over the past decade there has been a decrease in volunteerism rates that could potentially have a significant impact on volunteerism in sport.
In 2006, Provincial and Territorial Ministers responsible for sport, physical activity and recreation identified sport and recreation infrastructure as their first priority. Additionally, communities often look at event hosting opportunities as a means to leverage municipal, provincial and federal investments towards sport and recreation infrastructure. The Government of Canada has an infrastructure program that allows for sport related infrastructure projects, but the program does not have a specific sport budget.
There is a growing public expectation that non-governmental organizations will be effectively managed and will be increasingly accountable for any government support received.

Source: http://pch.gc.ca/pgm/sc/pubs/frum/bckdr-eng.cfm

Rural Canada - Trend Overview

2009-10-07T14:23:00.000-07:00

ACE Communities has a special interest in rural and small towns. This blog summarizes some of the high level trends in rural Canada:

in 2001, 20.6% of the Canadian population was considered rural, down from 22.8% in 1991 (1)
between 1991 and 1996, rural population growth occurred in 10 or the 13 provinces/territories; between 1996 and 2001, 9 provinces/territories experienced rural population contraction (1)
between the 2001 and 2006 censuses, there was a 7.1% decline in the number of farm operations and a 5.5% decline in farm operators - a loss of nearly 20,000 farmers (2)
the farm population continues to age with the number of farmers under 35 delining to 9.1% by 2006 and the overall average age of Canadian farmers rising from 49% in 2001 to 52 in 2006 (2)
the farming economy is tighter than ever: between 2001 and 2006 the Farm Input Price Index (cost of products and tools) rose 8.6% while the Farm Product Price Index (price farmers get for their goods) rolse only 1.7%. As a result only 55.8% of farms are making enough gross income to cover their cost of production and by 2006, 48.4% of Canadian farmers were obliged to find jobs off the farm to cover their bills (3).
in the decade from 1996 to 2005 farm debt has increased a total of 85% (4)
average realized net income for farms has been falling (annual income after expenses and depreciation): $1,837 in 2003; $9,840 in 2004; $8,390 in 2005; $7,299 in 2006; and $6,317 in 2007 (4)
for the 1991-1996-2001 census years, the incidence of low income in rural areas declined - while it rose in urban areas (largely related to housing cost differences) (3)

% of Individuals Living in Households with Income Less Than LICO
(LICO - low income cut-off)

Sources:
1. Government of Canada, National Rural Profile: A Ten-Year Census Analysis (1991-2001) http://www.rural.gc.ca/RURAL/display-afficher.do?id=1245156720975&lang=eng
2. Canadian Federation of Agriculture: http://www.cfa-fca.ca/pages/index.php?main_id=373
3. Government of Canada, Rural Poverty Discussion Paper http://www.rural.gc.ca/RURAL/display-afficher.do?id=1247249990335&lang=eng
4. Canadian Federation of Agriculture, 'Measuring the Farm Income Crisis' (2007)

Tourism Employment in Rural Canada

2009-10-07T12:11:00.000-07:00

Statistics Canada publishes the 'Rural and Small Town Canada Analysis Bulletin'. In 2005, they looked at tourism employment in rural Canada, finding that:

tourism employment represents about 3% of total employment in predominantly rural areas
fastest growth rates in rural tourism employment are occuring in rural areas adjacent to metropolitan areas
that the fastest growth rates in predominantly rural region tourism employment (not near a metropolitan area) were recorded in the Atlantic provinces
in most provinces, rural tourism employment increased at a faster rate than total rural employment - particularly in the Atalantic provinces; this was not true in Alberta or Quebec.

Source: http://www.statcan.gc.ca'pub/21-006-x/21-006-x2004008-eng.pdf

Rural Employment in the Culture Sector

2009-10-07T12:00:00.000-07:00

Statistics Canada publishes the 'Rural and Small Town Canada Analysis Bulletin'. In 2006, they reviewed rural employment trends in the culture sector and found that:

relatively fewer rural people are employed in the culture sector - 2.8% of the rural workforce as compared to 3.9% at the national level
rural culture employment grew more quickly than overall rural employment during the 1996 to 2003 period - up 2.6% per year compared to overall rural employment growth of 1.5% per year
rural culture workers are more likely to be emplyed part-time - 37% compared to 22% nationally
highest growth rates in rural culture employment (1996-2003) were found in Newfoundland and Labrador (>8%), Alberta (aprox. 6%) and PEI (Just over 4%) - Manitoba, Saskatechewan and Nova Scotia actually experienced declines.

Note that the data is based on a three year moving average and therefore includes employment information to 2004.

Source: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/21-006-x/21-006-x2005008-eng.pdf

Permanent Impact of the Digital Age

2009-10-06T15:03:00.000-07:00

We are all aware of how quickly the digital age has transformed the way we interact, are entertained, shop and access information. Astute service providers across the spectrum are going online to access new markets and hold on to current consumers exhibiting new, digital behaviours and precedents; the non-astute are disappearing quickly. Analysts are how new digital behaviours will ultimately reshape the way we live and we do business - tossing out traditional paradigms and speculating on new ones.

Consider the following eight essential shifts in the way we view our lives and the way our expectations are shaped. These are the key elements of the digital age:

The new approach to living suggested by these digital age elements challenge the very roots of the recreation, parks, arts, culture and sport movements.

we traditionally plan next season's programs months in advance and put a hold on required facilities at the same time - we must find ways to protect at least a portion of our assets for the more immediate demands that digital consumers will create
we have become accustomed to developing a program, putting it in a brochure, and signing up those who like it - we must learn to work with potential participants to develop a new generation of even better services, customized at least in part by the consumer
once a program is developed, we traditionally identify a space, schedule a time, and then register a bunch of strangers as participants - we will have to learn to facilitate and work with self-identified groups, at times they suggest and be flexible as they suggest alternative spaces that they know are available (perhaps better, cheaper, more convenient)
much of our cost in providing a program has to do with leadership (administrative, program, janatorial, etc.) - new communities of interest are accustomed to sharing these roles and costs and are likely prepared to 'go it alone' if they meet resistance rather than facilitation
we will only be able to attract the new consumer if we work with them to offer unique value - the offering must be desirable, accessible, credible, findable, usable and useful.

Potential Shift in Leisure Service Paradigm

Digital Culture - Emerging Opportunity

2009-10-05T11:45:00.000-07:00

Much of the current debate about the impact of the digital age on arts and culture focuses on issues related to file sharing, intellectual property and how best to manage digital music technology. As a result, we often find ourselves defending arts and culture from an inevitable transition. This brief paper summarizes some of the opportunities we could be looking at if we took the 'glass half full' perspective. Consider:

Access to Art:

millions of p2p users are online at any given moment - sharing music, images and video
thousands of new artists are getting exposure that the traditional music industry would have blocked
listeners who are excited about a new sound, etc. are sharing with friends over a coffee table, a distribution list, a blog - popular underground marketing at its best
access to hard to get music and movies is facilitated both by online distribution systems and social networks that identify and extol the virtues of little known talent
increasingly, art is available in digital format - see Digital Living Gallery, created by Bandai (a toy and game company) and the creation of a photoframe that looks like a traditional picture frame with artistic content both included and available (e.g. Renoir, van Gogh) - Deviant Art.com shares over 35 million digital artwork
online books have become a fact - dramatically reducing the cost per copy, with the potential to democratize access
increasingly music, visual art and performing art performers and groups will turn to mass distribution at a lower price (or even as a market teaser/loss leader) as the optimal means of attracting enthusiasts to their paying products, venues and performances - a possible win/win situation based on increased accessibility.

Virtual Institutions:

specialized galleries and museums will always have trouble finding critical mass in their narrow geographical market, but are now reaching out to any and all who share their relatively narrow interests around the globe
a number of organizations are engaged in the awesome task of putting millions of books online - Google is targeting the 10 million most popular, half a dozen other such projects have plans to scan the texts of over 60 million books by 2020 - clearly the world's greatest library
the European Commission has launched Eurpeana, a showcase to encourage organizations to donate digital content - it hopes to be the greatest online repository of European culture available (art, films, books, music)
our ability to curate online shows with content borrowed from instititutions around the world is seemingly endless - in time, the consumer may well be the curator, sharing his or her 'production' with others just as music playlists are shared today.

New Creative Opportunities:

a 2005 study found that 57% of American teenagers create content on the internet
PhotoShop, Corel and others have created a technical environment that has spawned a new generation and massive wave of digital art - while galleries and museums focus primarily on using digital technology to store copies of traditional art forms, not yet ready to embrace the new modern art
millions are creating and sharing writing, photography, video productions - Fotolog, Blogger, LiveJournal, Flickr, Broadcaster (to name but a few)

Creative Networking:

millions are creating and sharing writing, photography and video productions with friends and specialized interest groups every day - using social networking sites, blogs, YouTube, etc.
artists with specialized interests are in touch regularly using the same social networking supports - learning together, supporting one another, facilitating creative opportunities
increasingly we will be building virtual cultural spaces - where we expererience the same artistic stimulant and learn to appreciate each others culture-based response

Shared Spaces:

virtual worlds, of which Second Life is a part, comprise one of the fastest growing relms of virtual reality - once the domain of the gaming industry, many corporations and politicians are now creating virtual territory (press conferences, product demos, town hall meetings)
by 2007, there were almost 6 million Second Life residents the US and a study showed a single day expenditure of $1,636,815 in Second Life (http://www.secondlife.com/)
virtual travel is taking people to simulated cafes in cities around the world, to art galleries and museums, to parks, to events - and these 'travellers' are interacting in real time with people with shared interests from other countries

Intercultural Dialogue:

portals, blogs and partcipatory internet enable intercultural dialogue
even though we speak different languages, the digital age is supporting new ways of exchanging cultural opinion, views, services and products
language barriers are being overcome through technology - Web portal Lycos has a free translation service (Babel Firsh) making translation algorithms available to all; new Google tools are removing language as a barrier to communication across the full international scope of the Internet
digital culture changes our relation to one another and to knowledge transfer, removing previous boundaries inherent in traditional art/cultural communication and distribution systems - ultimately redefining cultural creativity
we have no idea where this potential convergence of cultures will take us - but digital technology is likely the 'game changer' that will define our global cultural future.

Culture has become accessible, portable and transnational all at the same time. Technology is fundamentally reshaping the way we create, distribute and participate in arts and culture. The challenge to traditional arts and culture communities and organizations is both to utilize this opportunity to expand audiences AND to find ways to embrace emerging digital art and culture. We cannot afford to ignore the phenomenon; we must at least be participants, if not leaders.

Mobile Location Based Advertising - Be There!

2009-09-28T17:12:00.000-07:00

The Tourism Exchange Company calls mobile location based advertising a 'game changer'. They point out the obvious:

the Search function allowed us to access WHAT we were interested in
social networking (Facebook, Twitter, etc.) gave us the capability to access WHO we wanted to
and now the GPS capability of smartphones allows us to link in WHERE it matters.

The combination of these three filters will in short order make our customers dependent on their smartphone to link up with friends and find the type of facility or service they want nearby. It will also allow the leisure industry, or individual operators, to reach out to consumers of interest as they enter a market area.

We already have software and applications that give the consumer access to local maps/directions, restaurant reviews, pictures of the beach just down the road, and the ability to make online reservations. More and more people will simply reach for their smartphone when they think about what to do next. We will have already told our phones to keep an eye out for fitness clubs, or art shows, top revue movies, best jogging paths, cheapest golf courses, etc. The capability is there.

The big question is whether our traditional recreation, sport, arts, culture, fitness and parks services will be 'present' online as these choices are being made; as groups are being formed for an outing; as consumers are deciding whether to come to your facility or are simply attracted to those who learned how to exploit this 'game changer' first.

For more insight: http://www.tourismexchange.com/exchange/en/newsroom/home/getArticle.jsp?articleID=9737

Recession Leisure - The New Wave?

2009-09-28T15:34:00.000-07:00

The 2008/2009 recession has brought measureable change to North American leisure behaviours and patterns. Perhaps more significantly, recession related adaptations mirror longer term trends that have been observed over the past couple of decades. We may well be seeing a permanent, rational shift that will influence leisure decisions and markets for decades.

An overview of the changes:

Less - a tighter personal or household economy pushes current trends towards voluntary simplicity, downward mobility, small indulgences. People are simply spending less on stuff and using what they already have more. Many recent reports and studies have shown that those who have moved away from rampant materialism are happier, more satisfied, and less stressed.
More Time at Home - The White Hutchinson Leisure eNews notes that a March 2009 study by Informational Resources found that 67% of Americans reported spending more time at home with their families than in the past - and 67% are eating more family meals together. They also point to a July 2009 Technomic study that found that over one-third of consumers (36%) report they are entertaining at home more with 40%. And to Faith Popcorn's BrainReserve Fall 2008 research finding that 72% of consumers reported "spending a good deal more time at home entertaining themselves and others."
Investing in your own 'entertainment assets' - consumers are more than ever understanding that they can save by investing in technology and other leisure related equipment. Even in a recession environment, households of all income levels are increasing the percentage of total income spent on home entertainment electronics and related services. Sales of fitness equipment and related digital instruction remain high. Sales of board games increase even as the overall toy market declines.
Socializing OnLine - the expense of going out to socialize is not as necessary in this age of digital social networking, online shared gaming, and informal video conferencing.
Valuing Experience over Commodities - leisure consumers continue to value a quality experience over yet another mass produced program. And they are finding that the best value is created by a peer group, a community of interest that gradually understands member needs and collectively customizes the leisure opportunty accordingly. A number of recent studies demonstrate that there is more satisfaction derived (and happiness generated) by the experiential purchase than from material accumulation.
The Staycation - tourism is in fact simply recreation away from home. Today's consumer is less willing/able to put a travel vacation on the credit card and unable to save in advance. The trend is to seek out more affordable leisure experiences near to home while on holiday. Local tourism also allows for warm-up visits and follow-through in the months after the holiday.

US Leisure Time - Link to Education

2009-09-28T14:32:00.000-07:00

The White Hutchinson Leisure and Learning Group reports that in the US, college graduates are gaining more leisure time on weekdays, but have less leisure time on weekends and holidays. Americans who did not attend college are seeing the opposite trend - less leisure time on weedkays but more on weekends.

Source: http://www.whitehutchinson.com/news/lenews/2008_september_october/article108.shtml

Community Vitality Trends - Canada

2009-09-28T12:22:00.001-07:00

The Institute of Wellbeing has taken on the challenging task of developing the Canadian Index of Wellbeing (CIW). A number of the indicators moitor the strength of social and community relationships. Quoting from The First Report of the Institute of Wellbeing, 'How are Canadians Really Doing?':

"The indicators reveal that Canadians, by and large, have strong social relationships with their families and communities. On balance, the trend of most of these indicators is heartening, suggesting that the wellbeing of Canadians, as measured by the quality of their relationships, is improving over time."

The following indicators were monitored and form the basis for the conclusion quoted above:

61% of Canadians were members of non-profit, voluntary organizations in 2003, up from 51% in the late 1990s
33% of Canadians volunteered with non-profit and charitable organizations in 2003; this was up from 31% in 1997, although the proportion had fallen to 27% in 2000
83% of Canadians reported that they extended unpaid care and assistance to family, friends and neighbours in 2004, an increase from 73% in 1997
42% of Canadians in 2003 reported being concerned about the needs of others, regardless of the pressures of their own lives, an increase from 27% in 1994
the national crime rate dropeed by 30% between 1991 and 2006: property crime rates dropped by 36% between 1993 and 2006, violent crime rates down 12% from1993 to 2006
the percentage of Canadians feeling safe walking alone after dark increased from 86% in 1993 to 90% in 2004
in 2004, 4.1% of Canadians experienced discrimination because of their ethnicity, race, culture, skin colour, relition or language - a drop from 7.1% in 2002
64% of Canadians expressed strong attachment to their local community in 2005, up from 58% in 2001 (see table below).

The only negative trends related to shrinking social networks. The number of Canadians reporting six of more close relatives dropped from 37% in 1996 to 34% in 2003, while the number reporting six or more close friends went from 40% down to 30%. The recent popularity of online social networking may of course have altered this trend.

% Canadians reporting a 'very strong' sense of community belonging

population 12 years and older, by province, 2001 - 2005

	2001	2003	2005
Canada	57.9%	63.9%	64.4%
Newfoundland	77.7	79.9	79.2
Prince Edward Island	70.4	73.7	75.1
Nova Scotia	66.1	70.9	73.6
New brunswick	62,0	72.3	73.2
Quebec	46.9	55.5	54.7
Ontario	59.9	64.4	65.5
Manitoba	63.1	69.4	68.5
Saskatchewan	68.1	72.6	72.2
Alberta	56.6	64.5	64.8
British Columbia	63.3	67.7	69.6
NWT	80.3	76.9	74.6

Source: http://www.ciw.ca/Libraries/Documents/FirstReportOfTheInstituteOfWellbeing.sflb.ashx

Volunteering Trends - Canada, 1997 to 2003

2009-09-28T11:08:00.001-07:00

The Institute of WellBeing has taken on the challenging task of developing a Canadian Index of WellBeing (CIW). A number of the key indicators relate to community vitality; the table below was developed in that context. The Institute reports that:

61% of Canadians were members of non-profit, voluntary organizations in 2003, up from 51% in the late 1990s
33% of Canadians volunteered with non-profit and charitable organizations in 2003; this was up from 31% in 1997, although the proportion had fallen to 27% in 2000.

Rate of Volunteering by Province - 1997, 2000, 2003

% volunteering with non-profit, voluntary organizations

population aged 15 and older

	1997	2000	2003
Canada	31%	27%	33%
Newfoundland	33	31	40
Prince Edward Island	36	37	40
Nova Scotia	38	34	38
New Brunswick	34	29	35
Quebec	22	19	23
Ontario	32	25	35
Manitoba	40	36	39
Saskatchewan	47	42	45
Alberta	40	39	39
British Columbia	32	26	37

Source: http://www.ciw.ca/Librairies/Documents/FirstReportOfTheInstituteOfWellbeing.sflb.ashx

Giving to Recreation and Sports - Canada, 2004 and 2007

2009-09-10T18:01:00.001-07:00

Statistics Canada conducts regular surveys to monitor the philanthropic and volunteer behaviours of Canadians - for Imagine Canada and Volunteer Canada. A recent report (Statistics Canada - Catalogue no. 71-542-X) provides insights into trends from 2004 to 2007.

Almost 23 million Canadians, 84% of the population aged 15 or over, made a financial donation to a charitable or non-proft organization in the 12 month period preceeding the 2007 Canada Survey of Giving, Volunteering and Participating. Trends:

the donation rate remained virtually the same in 2004 (85%) and 2007 (84%)
the number of donors increased by approximately 2.9%, in part due to a 3.7% increase in the population of Canadians aged 15 or over
Canadians donated a total of $10 billion in 2007, an increase of 12% over the $8.9 billion reported in 2004
the average annual donation increased by 9% - from $400 in 2004 to $437 in 2007
the average number of donations (per individual per year) decreased from 4.3 in 2004 to 3.8 in 2007.

Some significant shifts in giving among specific demographic groups were noted:

a 17% incrase in the average donations made by those who are religiously active - from $887 in 2004 to $1038 in 2007
a 20% increase in the average donations made by those aged 35 to 44 - from $370 in 2004 to $443 in 2007
a 13% increase in average donations among females (from $374 to 422)
a 7% increase n the donor rate among those who have only school aged children living in the household (from 84% to 91%) and a 56% increase in their average donation (from $335 in 2004 to $522 in 2007).

In 2007, donations to sports and recreation accounted for only 2% of the total amount donated; even though 14% of Canadian donors aged 15 and over supported sports and recreation organizations.

Donor Rate by selected organization type
population aged 15 and over - Canada, 2004 and 2007

Type of Organization	2004	2007
Health	57%	56%
Social Services	43	39
Religion	38	36
Hospitals	18	18
Education and research	20	14
Sports and Recreation	18	14
Grant-making, fundraising, voluntarism promotion	13	10
International	7	9
Environment	7	7
Law,advocacy and politics	6	5

Mean Annual Donation ($) by selected organization type
population aged 15 and over - Canada, 2004 and 2007

Type of Organization	2004	2007
Religion	$395	$469
International	199	256
Grant-making, fundraising, voluntarism promotion	150	176
Hospitals	89	120
Health	84	99
Law, advocacy and politics	78	99
Environment	114	97
Social Services	80	87
Education and Research	55	63
Sports and Recreation	45	58

Source: http://www.givingandvolunteering.ca/files/giving/en/csgvp_highlights_2007.pdf

Volunteering for Sports, Recreation, Arts and Culture - Canada, 2004 and 2007

2009-09-10T16:27:00.001-07:00

In both 2004 and 2007, Statistics Canada conducted surveys of donor and volunteer behaviour among Canadians - for Imagine Canada and Volunteer Canada. Almost 12.5 milion Canadians or 46% of the population aged 15 and over. volunteered for charitable and non-profit organizations in 2007. Collectively, these volunteers contributed just over 2.1 billion volunteer hours, equivalent to almost 1.1 million full-time jobs. Trends:

the number of volunteers increase from 2004 to 2007 by 669,000 or 5.7% - partly due to a population increase of 3.7% over the same period
the volunteer rate increased from 45% of the population in 2004 to 46% in 2007.
volunteer hours increased by 84 million hours or 4.2% from 2004 to 2007 - however the average number of volunteer hours per volunteer remained about the same. The median number of hours volunteered fell by 5 - from 61 hours in 2004 to 56 hours in 2007.

Sports and recreation shares the limelight with social services and religion for having the highest volunteer rate (11%) and percentage of total volunteer hours (18%). Volunteering for arts and culture is much lower at 3% volunteering and 4% of the total volunteer hours - similar to volunteering for health, environment, hospitals, and law/advocacy/politics.

The average number of volunteer hours per volunteer over the year decreased somewhat from 2004 to 2007 for both recreation/sport and arts/culture.

Average Volunteer Hours by organization type
volunteers aged 15 and over- 2004 and 2007

Organization Type	2004	2007
Religion	126	141
Sports and Recreation	122	119
Social Service	117	114
Arts and Culture	120	107
Hospitals	114	107
Law, Advocacy, Politics	123	104
Development and Housing	98	99
Business/Professional Associations, Unions	106	91
Environment	98	88
Education and Research	74	79
Health	55	52
Grant-making, fundraising and voluntarism promotion	48	44

Source: http://www.givingandvolunteering.ca/files/giving/en/csgvp_highlights_2007.pdf

Trends in Adult Physical Activity - Canada, 1994 to 2005

2009-09-10T14:42:00.001-07:00

The Canadian Fitness and Lifestyle Research Institute has prepared an analysis of trends in adult physical activity based on Statistics Canada's Canadian Community Health Surveys and earlier National Population Health Surveys. Activity is defined as a daily energy expenditure of 1.5 kilocalories/kilogram of body weight/day - roughly equivalent to walking one half hour every day or more. In general the trend is positive with increasing percentages of Canadian adults meeting this minimum requirement.

Trends in Adult Physical Activity - 1994 to 2005
% adults (20+) meeting minimum requirement (see above)

	1994	1996	1998	2000	2002	2005
Canada	38%	40%	45%	44%	49%	49%
Newfoundland	31	34	39	36	42	42
Prince Edward Island	30	29	38	39	41	40
Nova Scotia	32	37	43	42	45	46
New Brunsick	35	32	37	37	43	44
Quebec	33	36	41	39	45	46
Ontario	38	41	45	43	48	50
Manitoba	42	37	39	41	48	46
Saskatchewan	39	35	41	43	47	47
Alberta	45	46	50	48	53	52
British Columbia	49	47	53	55	58	57
North (Yukon, NWT, Nun)	n/a	n/a	n/a	49	50	49

Source: http://www.cflri.ca/eng/levels/trends.php

In general, men are more likely to be active than women and activity levels decrease with age. See table below which looks at the period from 1994 to 2002.

Trends in Physical Activity - by age and gender

	1994	1996	1998	2000	2002
Total Adults	38%	40%	45%	44%	49%
women	35	38	41	41	46
men	42	42	48	47	52
Total age 20-24	48	51	57	54	60
women	43	48	54	49	54
men	53	54	60	59	65
Total age 25-44	38	41	45	44	50
women	35	40	41	42	48
men	42	42	48	46	53
Total age 45-64	38	39	44	42	48
women	37	38	43	41	47
men	38	40	45	44	48
Total 65+	35	34	38	38	41
women	30	29	33	32	35
men	42	41	45	47	50

Source: http://www.cflri.ca/eng/statistics/surveys/pam2004.php

Trends in Adult Physical Activity - Canada, 1994 to 2005

2009-09-10T14:41:00.001-07:00

Trends in Adult Physical Activity - 1994 to 2005

% adults (20+) meeting minimum requirement (see above)

	1994	1996	1998	2000	2002	2005
Canada	38%	40%	45%	44%	49%	49%
Newfoundland	31	34	39	36	42	42
Prince Edward Island	30	29	38	39	41	40
Nova Scotia	32	37	43	42	45	46
New Brunsick	35	32	37	37	43	44
Quebec	33	36	41	39	45	46
Ontario	38	41	45	43	48	50
Manitoba	42	37	39	41	48	46
Saskatchewan	39	35	41	43	47	47
Alberta	45	46	50	48	53	52
British Columbia	49	47	53	55	58	57
North (Yukon, NWT, Nun)	n/a	n/a	n/a	49	50	49

Source: http://www.cflri.ca/eng/levels/trends.php

In general, men are more likely to be active than women and activity levels decrease with age. See table below which looks at the period from 1994 to 2002.

Trends in Physical Activity - by age and gender

	1994	1996	1998	2000	2002
Total Adults	38%	40%	45%	44%	49%
women	35	38	41	41	46
men	42	42	48	47	52
Total age 20-24	48	51	57	54	60
women	43	48	54	49	54
men	53	54	60	59	65
Total age 25-44	38	41	45	44	50
women	35	40	41	42	48
men	42	42	48	46	53
Total age 45-64	38	39	44	42	48
women	37	38	43	41	47
men	38	40	45	44	48
Total 65+	35	34	38	38	41
women	30	29	33	32	35
men	42	41	45	47	50

Source: http://www.cflri.ca/eng/statistics/surveys/pam2004.php

Our Plans for This Blog

2009-09-10T10:54:00.000-07:00

The Foresight blog is but the first step towards creation of a vital, engaging and sustainable online platform to facilitate:

access to trend information
awareness and discussion about predictions and prescriptions
ongoing strategic dialogue about what this all means for the future of our work in Canada’s leisure industries.

Imagine …

A place to turn to when you need trend information - facts:

ongoing professional monitoring of trend sources related to leisure, leisure behaviours, related services, and leadership competencies – summaries on line, links available if more detail is required
a community of trendwatchers representing every aspect of the leisure industries networked and regularly submitting material and links – a shared commitment to keeping up to date

A hub of debate about future possibilities - insight:

predictions or prescriptions about the future of leisure, leisure behaviours, and related service needs - identified, summarized and linked
synopsis of and links to similar discussions about more generic leadership competencies: community planning and development, human resource management, diversity, resource development, marketing/communications
blogs by individuals with foresight talking about what it all means
forums that facilitate active reflection and comment on trends, predictions and prescriptions
regular theme papers (blogs) by the moderators – catalysts for debate.

A service to help leisure industries focus on the future - consensus:

dialogue that shifts foresight to strategy
a network that constantly generates recommendations for the leisure industries to consider as they plan for their future in dynamic operating environments
regular DELPHI work with trendwatchers/participants to find agreement on how best to react, position and prepare
a service that builds our collective confidence about moving forward.

How do we get there from here?

Phase 1: ACE/ARPA has agreed to fund the initial content for this longer term project through a contract with Ken Balmer and Brenda Clarke, RETHINK (West) Inc. This blog serves as the interim host for that content.

Phase 2: As this initial content development work is progressing, ACE/ARPA consultants can begin to build an engaging online platform to support the activities described in the ‘Imagine’ section above. Essentially this platform would be a highly interactive website with an exciting, independent look and branding capable of recognizing future funders or investors.

Phase 3: Throughout phases 1 and 2, the ACE/ARPA/RETHINK team would be recruiting supporters

trendwatchers interested in monitoring the literature in their area of expertise
industry leaders with foresight who would be interested in participating as initial bloggers and DELPHI panelists
partners/investors who understand the significance of the resource for their stakeholders

We also intend to engage organizational partners across Canada who could serve as an ongoing advisory committee (e.g. ARPA counterparts in other provinces, Canadian Parks Council, Canadian Tourism Commission) – and share in the development of a sustainability plan to address ongoing costs related to maintaining the infrastructure, moderating input, and providing host/catalyst leadership.

Canadian Performing Arts Organization Trends

2009-09-09T17:15:00.000-07:00

'Business for the Arts' (www.businessforarts.org) conducts regular surveys to monitor the operations, status and health of non-profit performing arts organizations. Based on their 2005/2006 Survey report, Hill Strategies has provided an overview of trends from 1996/97 to 2005/06.

Trend/historical data was available for 101 organizations - including 42 theatre companies, 31 music organizations, 12 opera companies, 12 dance companies, and four multidisciplinary organizations. Findings:

total revenues increased by 23% (after adjusting for inflation) from 1996/97 to 2005/06 - with 71% of the performing arts organizations showing a real increase in revenues
total expenditures lagged slightly behind at a 20% increase over the same period
there were only minor shifts in revenue sources over the ten year period: earned revenues decreasing slightly from 50% to 48%; government funding stable, 30% in 1996/97 and29% in 2005/06; private sector revenues incrased from 20% to 23%
attendance increased by 13% - from 7 million in 1996/97 to 8.0 million (including both home and tour attendance)
theatre companies experienced strong growht in revenues (39%) than music organizations (24%), dance companies(12%) and opera companies (11%)
the smallest performing arts organizations (revenues under $500,000 in 1996/97) experienced the highest growth in revenues (38% from 1996/97 to 2005/06, after adjusting for inflation).

Source: http://artsresearchmonitor.com/article_details.php?artUID=50394

Canadian Museum and Art Gallery Trends

2009-09-09T16:57:00.000-07:00

'Business for the Arts' (www.businessforarts.org) regularly conducts surveys to monitor the operating situation and environment of Canada's non-profit museums and art galleries.

Hill Strategies has reviewed their work and provided an overview of trends from 1996/97 to 2005/06. Trend information existed for about 75 institutions - 29 public museums, 34 public art galleries, 11 university-affiliated museums or galleries, and one artist-run centre. Findings:

total revenues increased by 15% over the 10 year period (after adjusting for inflation) - 68% of the institutions registering a real increase in revenues - of all revenue categories, private sector revenues grew the fastest (38% increase after adjusting for inflation)
total expenses also grew by 15% after inflation
art galleries experienced stronger revenue growth than museums - up 20% over the ten year period, compared to 12% for museums
from 1996/97 to 2005/06, there were minor shifts in revenue sources: government funding decreased from 71% to 69% of total revenues; earned revenues increased from 20% to 22%; private sector funding increased from 7% to 9%
attendance was relativelys stable over the decade (in spite of population growth) - 10.1 milion in 1996/97 to 10.2 million in 2005/06
the smallest museums and galleries (revenues under $500,000 in 1996/97) experienced the highest growth in revenues (62% after adjusting for inflation) - and experienced the highest growth in private sector revenues (more than a threefold increase after inflation).

Source: http://artsresearchmonitor.com/article_details/php?artUID=50390

Comparing Cultural Employment Trends - Canada and US

2009-09-09T16:11:00.000-07:00

Hill Strategies offers a summary of a Statistics Canada report looking at cultural employment trends in Canada and the US. Not all cultural employment categories could be used because of comparability difficulties; overall statistics are therefore not as useful as the growth rate comparisons within the categories utilized. Findings:

in both countries, cultural employment grew at a much greater rate than the workforce as a whole between 1981 and 2001: up 81% in Canada compared to the overall growth rate of 32%; up 66% in the US, about double the overall 32% labour force growth rate
in both countries, cultural employment growth was experienced in both rural and urban areas: in Canadian rural areas, cultural labour growth was 55% between 1991 and 2001, compared to the overall rate of 16%; in Canadian urban areas, the cultural labour force grew by 90% between 1991 and 2001, compared to an overall rate of 43%
despite strong overall growth in cultural cateories, between 1981 and 2001 the percentage of the overall Canadian workforce employed in heritage jobs decreased slightly
over the 20 year period, growth in cultural employment was stronger in Canada than in the US; in 1981 the US had a higher proportion of the overall labour force employed in cultural positions, by 2001 the situation had reversed and Canada had the higher proportion
growth rates were high in both countries from 1981 to 1991; Canada remained strong from 1991 to 2001, while the US rate declined.

Source: http://www.artsresearchmonitor.com/article_details.php?artUID=50403

Artists in the US Workforce - 1990 to 2005

2009-09-09T16:05:00.001-07:00

The US National Endowment for the Arts has analysed US census occupation data to identify trends in employment patterns for artists from 1900 to 2005. Key findings include:

nearly two million Americans identify an artist occupation as their primary job - this total excludes an estimated 300,000 Americas with secondary employment as artists
after doubling from 1970 to 1990, artists have begun to hold steady as a proportion of American workers (1.4 percent)
writers were among the fastest growing artist occupations from 1990 to 2005 - growing at twice the rate of the total labor force
the US artist population is becoming more diverse: percentage of non-Hispanic white artists dipped from 86% to 80% (from 1990 to 2005); percentage of Hispanic, Asian and Native-American artists rose from 6% in 1990 to nearly 15% in 2005; over the same 15 year period, the proportion of African-American artists remained steady at 5%
the West and South have seen the greatest growth in artists by state: Nevada, Utah, Oregon and Arizona saw growth in the artist population 2.5-5 times taht of the US labor force from 1990 to 2000; Florida and Georgia led the South with a 23% growth in artists (double the national average).

Artists In Workforce Over Time

	1990 census	2000 census	2003-2005 ACS
Total Artists	1,727,507	1,927,400	1,999,474
Actors	35,916	38,605	39,717
Announcers	68,590	54,855	55,817
Architects	167,151	192,860	198,498
Fine artists, art directors, animators	278,516	231,690	216,996
Dancers and choreographers	21,771	26,915	25,651
Designers	619,328	749,335	779,359
Entertainers and performers	16,929	37,590	41.128
Musicians	148,162	170,015	169,6487
Photographers	117,084	124,045	147,389
Producers and Directors	120,609	139,335	139,996
Writers and Authors	133,471	162,155	185,276

Source: http://www.nea.gov/research/ArtistsInWorkforce.pdf

Australia - Children's Sport Participation - 2000, 2003, 2006

2009-09-09T15:06:00.001-07:00

The (Australia) National Centre for Culture and Recreaton Statistics conducted longitudinal surveys looking at children's participation in organized sport in 2000, 2003 and 2006. The surveys ducumented those who had participated in the two weeks prior to the interview. Participation in organized dancing lessons was included. In general, the surveys showed:

participation rates increasing between 2000 (64%) and 2003 (67%, with little change occuring in 2006 (68%)
an increase in the average hours of participation by children in organized sport occurred between 2003 (5.2 hours) and 2006 (6.4 hours)
an increase in the average frequency of children's participation occured between 2003 (75 times per year) and 2006 (81 times per year) - increase primarily by children aged 9-11 years and by girls of all ages.

The average hours that children spent watching television, vidos or DVD decreased from 22 hours in 2000 and 2003 to 20 hours in 2006. The proportion of children playing computer games decreased from 71% in 2003 to 64% in 2006; however the average hours spent over a two week period increased from 7.5 hours in 2003 to 7.9 hours in 2006.

Participation in sport and/or dancing by age and sex - 2000, 2003, 2006

percentage of child population (5-14 yrs) participating in previous two weeks

	2000	2003	2006
Boys 5-8 yrs	58.9	63.7	63.4
Boys 9-11 yrs	74.3	74.3	74.7
Boys 12-14 yrs	69.2	70.7	71.7
Boys Total	66.6	69.0	69.4
Girls 5.8 yrs	55.3	58.6	63.1
Girls 9-11 yrs	67.5	70.5	73.5
Girls 12-14 yrs	63.1	65.4	63.6
Girls Total	61.3	64.3	66.4
All 5-8 yrs	57.1	61.2	63.3
All 9-11 yrs	71.0	72.5	74.1
All 12-14 yrs	66.1	68.1	67.8
Total (5-14 yrs)	64.0	66/7	67.9

Source: http://www.ausport.gov.au/_data/assets/pdf_file/0011/276914/ABS_-_Childrens_participation_in_organized_-_2003.pdf

Australian Physical Activity Participation Rates - 2001 to 2008

2009-09-09T14:20:00.001-07:00

Since 2001, the Australian Sports Commission has conducted an annual Exercise, Recreation and Sport Survey (ERASS) looking at participation in physcial activity for persons aged 15 years and over. In general:

there has been a significant increase in the percentage of the population participating in regular physical activity (more than 3x per week on average, for any physical activity) - from37.2% in 2001 to 49.3% in 2008
the bulk of this participation is in non-organized physical activity - increasing from 27.9% in 2001 to 39.8% in 2008; participation in organized physical activity increased from 9.4% in 2001 to 12.1% in 2008.

Note that organized physical activity is hosted by a facility, centre, club or organization that required payment for participation; a workplace; a school; or any other type of organization.

Physical Activity Participation Rates - 2001 to 2008

	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
Regular Participation (all PA)	37.2	38.8	45.8	47.2	44.2	42.8	43.5	49.3
Non-Organized PA	27.9	29.1	34.6	37.0	34.1	33.8	33.6	39.8
Organized Physical Activity male female	9.5 9.3	11.0 9.7	11.5 11.6	11.5 11.2	11.5 11.1	9.9 9.5	10.9 11.6	12.5 11.7

The following table looks at the frequency of participation for participants only (# times per week). Increased participation has been recorded primarily for organized physical activity.

Median Frequency of Participation - Participants Only - 2001 to 2008

	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
Non-Organized PA	2.4	2.8	3.0	3.0	2.9	3.0	3.0	3.0
Organized PA	1.4	1.3	1.7	1.5	1.5	1.3	1.8	1.8

Over the eight years of the annual survey, Australia has witnessed growth in the number of participants in all physical activities except tennis and golf.

% Change in Number of Participants in Various Activities - 2001 to 2008

listed in order of # participants (most popular at top of column)

Top 10 Non-Organized Activities	% change 08 over 01	Top 10 Organized Activities	% change 08 over 01
Walking	49.8	Aerobics/Fitness	35.1
Aerobics/Fitness	152.5	Golf	-8.1
Swimming	-0.5	Football (outdoor)	50.3
Cycling	35.9	Netball	-1.2
Running	57.1	Tennis	-18.3
Bushwalking	33.5	ouch Football	19.3
Tennis	-14.7	Basketball	6.6
Golf	8.2	Australian Rules Football	36.4
Weight Training	49.3	Swimming	4.6
Fishing	6.2	Cricket (outdoor)	23.2

Source: http://www.ausport.au/_data/assets/pdf_file/0004/3004384/ERASS_Report_2008.pdf

Sports Industry Trends

2009-09-09T10:55:00.000-07:00

Plunkett Research Limited scans a number of industries, including the Sports Industry (primarily from a US perspective). The major trends they are noting include:

the impact of celebrity athletes on the popularity of their sport (e.g. Lance Armstrong and his positive impact on cycling)
the resurgence of tennis (up 43% from 2000 to 2007) - likely the combined result of relatively lost cost and the high probability of local facilities that do not require 'gas guzzling' travel
anticipated plumeting of markets involving motorized recreational equipment
drop in the number of people playing golf in the US
continued long-term growth in fitness-related activities - fastest growing activities include spinning (advanced stationary bicycles, Pilates, use of treadmills and use of the elliptical motion trainer
the strategy of sporting goods manufacturers to constantly introduce new technologies to stimulate new sales and replacement of 'older' equipment.

Plunkett Research also notes the evolution in sport media:

continued importance of online viewing
growth in use of digital TV recording devices (DVRs such as TiVo) enabling fans to watch events according to their own schedules
rapid development of sport viewing through cell phone screens.

The current Sport Industry Analysis speaks to the impact of the current global recession in 2008 and 2009:

ticket sales and other revenues down for professional sports teams - combination of high prices and limited ability to pay
sport and recreation equipment sales down
sport gambling revenues plummeting
golf courses suffering revenue declines - a few closing, others delaying refurbishing projects
sports travel and tourism declining
significant declines in sales of the most expensive sport/recreation equipment items such as RVs and boats.

According to Plunkett Research, the biggest opportunities in the sports industry today include:

providing exciting, high-value opportunities for sport fans - such as high-tech gear at reasonable prices
spectator sports ticket packages that represent better value
high-value family recreational iatems that can be used at home or near the home
exercise/fitness services or programs designed to appeal to aging baby boomers
equipment and apparel that represents high value and exciting design.

Source: http://www.plunkettresearch.com/Industries/Sports/SportsTrends/tabid/274/Default.aspx (03/09/2009)

Alberta Group/Team Activities - % Household P...

2009-09-08T16:44:00.001-07:00

Alberta has been conducting the Alberta Recreation Survey every four years since 1981. The following trend data for team sports for the 20 year period from 19088 to 2008 was extracted from each of the survey reports. Source: http://tpr.alberta.ca/recreation/ars/default.aspx

In general, the data shows declines across the board with the exception of soccer which has remained at the same level in 2008 as in 1988 - experiencing a decline in the last decade after growth in the 1990s.

Group/Team Activities - % Household Participation 1988 to 2008

ranked in order of 2008 popularity

Activity	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008
Bowling/Lawn Bowling	26.4	24.4	25.5	22.8	23.9	21.0
Soccer	17.4	14.6	18.5	23.0	19.3	17.7
Ice Hockey	22.4	19.6	20.6	18.0	16.9	14.2
Basketball	17.0	17.7	19.9	22.3	18.1	11.8
Softball/baseball	33.7	30.6	29.1	22.5	17.2	11.6
Volleyball	21.0	19.6	18.7	16.4	13.6	11.2
Curling	21.3	16.6	14.5	13.1	13.1	9.6
Football	10.6	10.1	11.3	9.1	7.7	7.0
Rugby	2.4	2.0	3.2	2.7	2.7	1.8
Ringette	1.6	1.3	2.7	1.7	1.0	1.1

Alberta Creative/Cultural Activity Tr...

2009-09-08T16:29:00.001-07:00

Alberta has been conducting the Alberta Recreation Survey every four years since 1981. The following creative/cultural trend data was obtained for the 20 year period from 1988 to 2008 by extracting data from each of the survey reports.

Alberta Creative/Cultural Activity Trends - 1988 to 2008
% households participating

listed by most popular in 2008

Activity	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008
Attending a fair/festival				59.6	56.7	62.4
Craft/Creative Hobby	67.7	54.2	58.8	67.9	63.8	54.3
Visiting a museum. art gallery	65.4	47.3	52.3	71.5	50.9	51.4
Attending Live Theatre*					51.9	44.7
Taking part in the arts**	33.0	28.3	30.6	35.7	30.8	29.4
Dancing	46.9	39.1	34.4	33.8	29.4	27.3
Doing other hobbies						19.1
Other creative/cultural activity						3.2

* this category previously included in 'visiting a museum, art gallery, live performance
** e.g. drama, music, writing, drawing
Source: http://tpr.alberta.ca/recreation/ars/default.aspx

Alberta Outdoor Recreation Participation Rates - 1988 to 2008

2009-09-08T15:19:00.001-07:00

The Alberta Recreation Suvey has been conducted every four years since 1981. Participation figures for the most popular outdoor recreation activities have been taken from each survey report (1988 - 2008) to look at the 20 year trend. In general, rates are declining; however growth is experienced in golf, day hiking, birdwatching, and ATV/Off Road Vehicles.

Alberta Outdoor Recreation Trends - 1988 to 2008
% of households participating

Activity	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008
Gardening	70.4		57.6	74.9	72.1	64.8
Golf	39.5	41.0	44.0	46.6	44.9	43.6
Overnight Camping	51.1	45.8	46.3	47.6	45.3	39.7
Day Hiking	30.5	33.2	36.1	38.3	35.8	37.0
Fishing	49.7	38.9	34.8	31.5	29.3	27.5
Birdwatching			16.7	18.6	17.9	19.1
ATV/Off Road Vehicles	14.2	14.0	12.9	10.0	11.6	16.9
Mountain Biking (off road)			5.0	18.1	16.4	11.5
Horseback/Trail Riding	21.5	16.8	16.2	12.6	10.9	10.8
Hunting	22.1	14.7	11.0	9.3	8.2	8.1
Shooting (trap/skeet/target)	11.1			4.9	6.2	6.7
Mountain Climbing	9.1	8.7	11.6	9.4	9.9	6.1
Overnight Backpacking	8.4	7.8	10.2	9.5	7.2	5.9
Archery	5.9	5.4	5.4	4.2	4.9	5.1
Motorized Trail Biking	9.0	5.9		4.6	5.1	4.6
Orienteering	3.3	2.8	4.5	2.8	1.9	2.9
Moto-Cross	1.6	1.1	2.5	0.4	1.0	1.3
BMX Racing	1.6	0.96	2.1	0.8		1.2

Source: http://tpr.alberta.ca/recreation/ars/surveypdf

Alberta Recreation Trends - 1988 to 2008

2009-09-08T12:08:00.001-07:00

Alberta has condected the Alberta Recreation Survey every four years since 1981. The tables below are taken from two documents, 'A Look At Lesiure' No. 55 (http://tpr.alberta.ca/recreation/ars/surveypdf/LL55_trends.pdf) and the recently released 2008 Survey (http://tpr.alberta.ca/recreation/ars/default.aspx).

The top 15 activities, in terms of percentage of Alberta households participating, have remained relatively constant. The majority of participation rates have declined over the 20 year period - with the notable exception of video gaming, aerobics/fitness, golf and day hiking. In addition, the majority of these activities are individual or with a couple of 'friends' and relatively easily scheduled.

Top 15 Activities - % Household Participation 1988 to 2008

ranked in order of 2008 popularity

Activity	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008
Walking for Pleasure	88.8	87.3	88.9	91.3	93.0	79.3
Gardening	70.4		57.6	74.9	72.1	64.8
Attending Fair/Festival					56.7	62.4
Sports Spectator	63.7	58.7	57.2	62.3	60.0	59.1
Crafts/Hobbies	67.7	54.3	58.8	67.9	63.8	54.3
Video/electronic games	36.9	39.9	47.2	53.9	53.0	54.1
Visiting museum/art gallery	65.4	47.3	52.3	71.5	50.9	51.4
Bicycling	63.9	59.2	61.2	59.9	56.0	48.3
Swimming (in pools)	60.4	55.0	52.8	55.0	54.1	47.1
Fitness Programs	34.4	30.4	32.2	35.9	43.9	44.0
Attending Live Theatre					51.9	44.7
Golf	39.7	41.0	44.0	46.6	44.9	43.6
Overnight Camping	51.1	45.8	46.3	47.6	45.3	39.7
Swimming (lakes, rivers)	40.7	37.3	33.8	33.9	32.6	37.8
Day Hiking	30.5	30.9	36.1	38.3	35.8	37.0

The majority of group or team activities (generally sports) that require lots of organization are declining. Soccer is the one activity that maintained its overall participation level over the 20 year period, but has shown a significant decline in the last decade.

Group/Team Activities - % Household Participation 1988 to 2008

ranked in order of 2008 popularity

Activity	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008
Bowling/Lawn Bowling	26.4	24.4	25.5	22.8	23.9	21.0
Soccer	17.4	14.6	18.5	23.0	19.3	17.7
Ice Hockey	22.4	19.6	20.6	18.0	16.9	14.2
Basketball	17.0	17.7	19.9	22.3	18.1	11.8
Softball/baseball	33.7	30.6	29.1	22.5	17.2	11.6
Volleyball	21.0	19.6	18.7	16.4	13.6	11.2
Curling	21.3	16.6	14.5	13.1	13.1	9.6
Football	10.6	10.1	11.3	9.1	7.7	7.0
Rugby	2.4	2.0	3.2	2.7	2.7	1.8
Ringette	1.6	1.3	2.7	1.7	1.0	1.1
Other Group Activity						2.5

Adult Physical Activity Increasing - Canada

2009-09-04T12:49:00.000-07:00

The following is a direct quote from Statistic Canada's Health Reports (Vol. 18, No. 3, August 2007):

"A comparison of results from the 1996/97 National Population Health Survey with those from the 2005 Canadian community Health Survey shows that the proportion of Canadians in the 10 provinces who reported at least moderately active leisure time rose from 43% to 52%. The increase persists even when the differing age composition of the two periods is taken into account and is evident in both sexes and in all provinces."

"Non-leisure physical activity also increased in the 10 provinces:

The proportion of people who spent at least six hours a week walking or bicycling as a means of transportion rose from 19% to 24%
the proportion who usually did heavy work or lifted heavy loads grew from 5% to 8%
those whose daily activities usually involved lifting or carrying light loads increased from 17% to 25%
however, the proportion who walk or stand quite a lot during the day declined substantially from 51% to 42% (p <0.05>

Even when adjusted for the differing age composition between the two periods, these trends in physical activity persisted.

Impact of an Aging Population

2009-09-04T12:06:00.000-07:00

As we go about our trendscanning work, we often come across scans, overview work or analysis by other authors that we enjoy. The following is a growing list of resources related to the impact of an aging population on leisure services:

Valerie White, 'Getting Ready for the Boomers: Impact of an Aging Population' (Nova Scotia Department of Seniors) - http://lin.ca/resource-details/13165
Monteith-Brown Planning Consultants, 'The Impact of the Aging Population on Parks and Recreation' (2008 PRO Educational Forum and Trade Show) - http://spra.sk.ca/images/stories/AdvocacyResearch/impactagingpop.pdf

Interesting Trend Scans

2009-09-04T11:48:00.000-07:00

During our trendscanning activity, we often come across interesting scans, overviews or summaries prepared by other authors. This blog is simply a growing list of links that we have enjoyed, for your reference:

Monteith-Brown Planning Consultants, 'Trends in Parks and Recreation' (2008 PRO Educational Forum and Trade Show) - http://spra.sk.ca/images/stories/AdvocacyResearch/trendsinparks.pdf
David Touve and Steven Tepper, 'Leisure in American: Searching for the forest amongst the trees' (Cultural Organizations and Changing Leisure Trends) - http://www.getty.edu/leadership/compleat_leader/downloads/leisure_in_america.pdf
Randy White, CEO of the White Hutchinson Leisure & Learning Group publishes a interesting Leisure eNews for the leisure industries - to subscribe: http://www.whitehutchinson.com/subscribe/lenews/
The British Columbia Recreation and Parks Association conducted a trend scan as part of its own strategic planning process: http://www.bcrpa.bc.ca/about_bcrpa/documents/Trends.pdf

Physical Activity/Inactivity for Children and Youth - Canada

2009-09-04T10:51:00.000-07:00

The Canadian Fitness and Lifestyle Research Institute's 'Canadian Physical Activity Levels Among Youth (CANPLAY) Study' measures physical activity levels of children and youth objectively, using pedomoters to measure daily steps. We now have three consecutive years of this data showing:

the percentage of children and youth meeting Canada's physical activity guidelines of 90 minutes of physical activity a day is very low - but has increased from 9% in 2005/2006 to 13% in 2007/2008
the mean number of steps accumulated per day from 2005 to 2008 for Canadian children and youth has increased somewhat - from approximately 11,300 to approximately 12,000.

Using this data, the Federal-Provincial-Territorial Ministers responsible for Sport, Physical Activity and Recreation in May 2008 set the first ever national physical activity targets for children and youth aged 5-19 years of age:

by 2015, to increase by seven percentage points the proportion of children and youth who participate in 90 minutes of moderate to vigorous physical activity over and above activities of daily living; and
by 2015, to increase from 11,500 steps to 14,500 steps per day the average number of steps taken by all children and youth, which is equivalent to an increse of 30 minutes of physical activity per day.

Additional insight:

boys take more daily steps than girls (about 1,200 more daily steps) - both genders experiencing increases over the three years
almost twice as many boys as girls met the 16,500 step CPAG criterion in year 3 of the study
the proportion of young people meeting this criterion generally decreases in older age groups - with almost twice as many 5-10 year olds meeting the CPAG criterionb and 15-19 year olds.

Source: http://www.activehealthykids.ca/ReportCard/PhysicalActivityandInactivity.aspx
http://www.cflri.ca/eng/programs/canplay/documents/CANPLAY_2008_b1.pdf

Top Ten Fitness Trends for 2009 - ACE

2009-09-03T12:20:00.000-07:00

Each year, the American Council on Exercise identifies the top ten fitness or workout trends for the comming year. The predictions are based on an annual survey of their network of fitness experts. Their assessment for 2009, according to ACE's Chief Science Officer Cedric X. Bryant:

"The overarching theme for fitness in 2009 is getting more bang for the buck. Consumers will engage in workouts that provide multiple benefits due to time and economic limitations. We will also see continued trends from 2008 including boot-camp style workouts, technology-based workouts, out-of-the-box programming, and an incrased interest in fitness for those who are over 50 years."

The listing of the top fitness trends for 2009 includes:

boot camp style workouts
budget friendly workouts - a decline in gym memberships and the use of personal trainers
specialty classes - yoga and pilates remain strong, with dance-based classes being all the rage
getting back to basics - basic movements and techniques as a foundation
circuit training - interval training combining strength training and cardiovascular activity
kettlebell training
mixing it up - programming changing from linear progression to undulating, alternate day activities.

For more insight, see: http://www.acefitness.org/media/media_display.aspx?itemid=2543

Another, but complementary perspective can be found on AOL Lifestyle Canada and points to:

the increasing popularity of smaller fitness and dance studios - less expensive, where you know many of the participants
fitness boot camp
ballroom dancing - thanks to Dancing with the Stars
shift to more fun and games - exergaming (e.g. Wii), hula-hooping, trampolining
working out at home - downloading a program, investing in home gym equipment
senior fitness
short workouts - intense and time efficient
personalized DVD or Web workouts
suspension training.

Source: http://lifestyle.aol.ca/article/hot-workout-trends-for-2009/464896/

Video Game Trends

2009-09-03T10:25:00.000-07:00

Annual retail sales of video games now exceed each of music, DVD and box office revenues. And the industry is changing dramatically. The following big trends will influence how this significant leisure market evolves.

Trend 1: Broader Demographic

The average age of gamers is increasing from its current already high average age of 32 (US) and the percentage of gamers who are female is increasing at approximately 4-5% per year from its current level of 40%. This broader market is a response to:

Nintendo's Wii that makes participation much more active and appeals to new segments
an increasing number of "games" that are no longer about competition
the social aspects that come with online gaming.

Trend 2: Virtual Worlds

Increasingly games are providing a multi-sensorial experience - building a realistic, real world feel and context. Developers are investing much more in 'contextualizing' while making the immediate action much more life like.

Trend 3: Mobile Gaming

Gaming devices are shrinking in size and many no longer require a fixed link to the TV in the living room at home. The mobile game market is already a multi-million dollar industry and will grow even faster as a result of:

integration with mobile phones (e.g. iPhone)
the mobile game industry linking with online gaming
gaming franchises developing with the smart phone in mind (not just gaming consoles)
the increasing interest of branded programs in mobile gaming.

Trend 4: Game Hardware - All You Need?

Consumers know that they have too many boxes in their entertainment room/space. Increasingly they will consider their game console (XBox or PS3) as an option for accessing movies and talking to friends. Firms like Microsoft will capitalize on these convergence opportunities to compete directly with cable and telephone providers.

Trend 5: Physical Activity through Gaming

Wii has revolutionized the gaming industry and lifted gamers off the couch. Microsoft's Natal will support the next big step towards physically active gaming - a screen mounted camera that can recognize every movement that you make - with related 'game' software generating an appropriate response. Imagine the potential for the gamer moving about his or her own room relating to the virtual world, competitor or challenge presented on the screen.

Trend 6: Next Generation Social Gaming

Online gaming has definitely arrived: 76% of Wii users are online gamers; 70% for XBox360; and 70% for PlayStation3. MMOGs (massively multiplayer online games) have taken off, generating more that $1.5 billion in subscription revenues in 2008 - with projections to $2.5 billion by 2012. One game, World of Warcraft, has more than 11.5 million monthly subscribers. Developers are continuing to find new ways to use RTP (real-time play) to transform the gaming experience.

Trend 7: From Consumers to Contributors

With enhanced online opportunities, many gamers will no longer be content to simply buy or subscribe to a fixed product. They will be actively engaged in modifying, customizing and taking the digital experience to the next level - in the process, joining the game design and production process.

Gaming - World's Biggest Entertainment Industry

2009-09-02T15:51:00.001-07:00

The total value of worldwide annual retail sales for video game software now exceeds equivalent numbers for music, DVD or box office revenues. In 2007, consumers spent $20.7 billion on hardware and $34.7 billion on software.

Value of Purchases (billion $)	2005	2006	2007
Hardware	9.4	13.2	20.7
Software	24.2	26.5	34.7

Source: www.slideshare.net/EhOs/video-game-industry-trends

Changing Digital Gamer Demographics - US

2009-09-02T15:15:00.001-07:00

Many assume that the majority of video game players are children and youth. The opposite is actually true with almost 60% of US gamers being over the age of 25. The current average age of US gamers is 32. Moreover, when we look at the ages of new gamers (having played for less than two years), this percentage rises to 67%.

Age Group	% New Gamers (under 2 yrs)	% Established Gamers (over 2 yrs)
45 - 54	20%	17%
35 - 44	20%	20%
25 - 34	27%	22%
18 - 24	16%	19%
12 - 17	17%	22%

Source: www.scribd.com/doc/16938922/Gaming-Trends-2009
60% of US gamers are male; 40% female. However this too is changing. According to a study by NPD Group (Gamer Segmentation 2009):

female gamers showed a four percentage point rise in 2009 compared to 2008 among both Heavy Portable and Extreme Gamers
females increased by five percentage points among Console Gamers (from 23% in 2008 to 28% in 2009).

Source: http://www.npd.com/press/releases/press_090629b.html

Park and Facility Visitation Trends - Canada (1992 - 2005)

2009-06-24T10:46:00.001-07:00

Through the General Social Survey, Statistics Canada collects visitation information related to several leisure activity categories. The table below compares 1992, 1998 and 2005 and looks at the percentage of Canadians over 15 years of age who had visited the type of park or facility at least once in the previous 12 months, finding that:

the percentage visiting conservation areas or nature parks has been relatively stable, but was slightly lower in 2005
trends in percentage visiting specialized leisure/learning facilities (zoos, aquariums, botanical gardens, planetariums or observatories) are also slipping, and
there has been some growht in the percentage of adults visiting historic sites.

Note that with a 22.6% growth in the Canadian population (15 or older) in the same time period, there is significant growth in the actual number of adults who visit these parks or facilities:

visitors to conservation areas or nature parks increased from 9.9 million in 1992 to 12 million in 2005 (an increase of 20.5%)
visitors to zoos, aquariums, botanical gardens, planetariums or observatories increased from 7.6 million in 1992 to 8.8 million in 2005 (15.1%), and
visitors to historic sites increased from 5.8 million in 1992 to 2.9 million in 2005 (50.9%).

Activity - % adults visiting at least once in previous 12 months	1992	1998	2005
Visits to conservation areas or nature parks	46.7%	48.9%	45.9%
Visits to zoos, aquariums, botanical gardens, planetariums or observatories	35.7%	35%	33.5%
Visits to historic sites	27.1%	35.2%	33.4%

Source: General Social Survey, Statistics Canada

Heritage Institution Trends - Canada (1993/94 - 2002/03)

2009-06-23T17:13:00.001-07:00

Statistics Canada publishes a Profile of Heritage Institutions. The first table below reports that the number of heritage institutions increased significantly in the ten year period from 1993/94 to 2002/03 - by 18.6%. During the same period, total attendance increased by 7%. The overall increase in participation must clearly be shared among a greater number of locations or competitors.

	93/94	95/96	97/98	99/00	02/03
number of institutions attendance (1000's)	2,122 54,928	2,390 54,482	2,357 53,825	2,436 56,299	2,517 58,759

Over the ten year period, costs have increased substantially, by 49%. The revenue mix is changing signficantly:

unearned revenues (largely government grants) increased by 33%
while earned revenues (membership, admission, sales/other) increased by 103%

1000's of dollars	93/94	95/96	97/98	99/00	02/03
Operating Revenue unearned revenues earned revenues Operating Expenses wages artifacts other	869,947 674,541 195,407 844,016 522,458 8,025 313,533	959,045 699,992 259,053 932,696 528,452 14,489 389,755	1,013,018 719,300 293,718 978,707 528,812 12,972 436,922	1,116,576 762,356 354,220 1,073,331 566,729 15,289 491,312	1,297,832 899,504 398,228 1,264,775 669,419 21,699 573,658

Total capital expenditures exceed related capital revenues by a large margin. Expenditures are shifting significantly towards renovation and restoration - to protect the heritage asset and increase its appeal to the visiting public.

1000's of dollars	93/94	95/96	97/98	99/00	02/03
Total Capital Revenues Total Capital Expenses purchase/construction renovations other capital	116,716 125,949 47,645 31,311 46,993	144,995 166,001 43,686 63,178 59,137	105,507 131,381 31.,321 47,799 52,261	110,405 131,849 25,259 60,082 46,508	164,448 254,016 135,972 60,360 57,684

In spite of the increase in both number of institutions and visitors, employment is plateaued (both full-time and part-time). Of greater concern is the significant loss of volunteers over the ten year period.

	93/94	95/96	97/98	99/00	02/03
full-time staff part-time staff volunteers	10,017 14,108 55,128	10,162 13,073 52,035	9,856 13,654 46,403	10,355 14,567 44,614	10,939 14,558 47,414

Source: www40.statcan.gc.ca/101/cst01/arts06-eng.htm